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@ARTICLE{Wohland:865540,
      author       = {Wohland, Jan and Omrani, Nour Eddine and Keenlyside, Noel
                      and Witthaut, Dirk},
      title        = {{S}ignificant multidecadal variability in {G}erman wind
                      energy generation},
      journal      = {Wind energy science discussions},
      volume       = {4},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2366-7451},
      address      = {Göttingen},
      publisher    = {Copernicus Publications854460},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2019-04920},
      pages        = {515 - 526},
      year         = {2019},
      abstract     = {Wind energy has seen large deployment and substantial cost
                      reductions over the last decades. Further ambitious
                      upscaling is urgently needed to keep the goals of the Paris
                      Agreement within reach. While the variability in wind power
                      generation poses a challenge to grid integration, much
                      progress in quantifying, understanding and managing it has
                      been made over the last years. Despite this progress,
                      relevant modes of variability in energy generation have been
                      overlooked. Based on long-term reanalyses of the 20th
                      century, we demonstrate that multidecadal wind variability
                      has significant impact on wind energy generation in Germany.
                      These modes of variability can not be detected in modern
                      reanalyses that are typically used for energy applications
                      because modern reanalyses are too short (around 40 years of
                      data). We show that energy generation over a 20-year wind
                      park lifetime varies by around $±5 \%$ and the
                      summer-to-winter ratio varies by around $±15 \%.$
                      Moreover, ERA-Interim-based annual and winter generations
                      are biased high as the period 1979–2010 overlaps with a
                      multidecadal maximum of wind energy generation. The induced
                      variations in wind park lifetime revenues are on the order
                      of $10 \%$ with direct implications for profitability. Our
                      results suggest rethinking energy system design as an
                      ongoing and dynamic process. Revenues and seasonalities
                      change on a multidecadal timescale, and so does the optimum
                      energy system layout.},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      ddc          = {333.7},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000485718000001},
      doi          = {10.5194/wes-4-515-2019},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/865540},
}