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@ARTICLE{Wohland:865540,
author = {Wohland, Jan and Omrani, Nour Eddine and Keenlyside, Noel
and Witthaut, Dirk},
title = {{S}ignificant multidecadal variability in {G}erman wind
energy generation},
journal = {Wind energy science discussions},
volume = {4},
number = {3},
issn = {2366-7451},
address = {Göttingen},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications854460},
reportid = {FZJ-2019-04920},
pages = {515 - 526},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Wind energy has seen large deployment and substantial cost
reductions over the last decades. Further ambitious
upscaling is urgently needed to keep the goals of the Paris
Agreement within reach. While the variability in wind power
generation poses a challenge to grid integration, much
progress in quantifying, understanding and managing it has
been made over the last years. Despite this progress,
relevant modes of variability in energy generation have been
overlooked. Based on long-term reanalyses of the 20th
century, we demonstrate that multidecadal wind variability
has significant impact on wind energy generation in Germany.
These modes of variability can not be detected in modern
reanalyses that are typically used for energy applications
because modern reanalyses are too short (around 40 years of
data). We show that energy generation over a 20-year wind
park lifetime varies by around $±5 \%$ and the
summer-to-winter ratio varies by around $±15 \%.$
Moreover, ERA-Interim-based annual and winter generations
are biased high as the period 1979–2010 overlaps with a
multidecadal maximum of wind energy generation. The induced
variations in wind park lifetime revenues are on the order
of $10 \%$ with direct implications for profitability. Our
results suggest rethinking energy system design as an
ongoing and dynamic process. Revenues and seasonalities
change on a multidecadal timescale, and so does the optimum
energy system layout.},
cin = {IEK-STE},
ddc = {333.7},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
pnm = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000485718000001},
doi = {10.5194/wes-4-515-2019},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/865540},
}