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@ARTICLE{Soares:866273,
      author       = {Soares, Pedro M. M. and Careto, João A. M. and Cardoso,
                      Rita M. and Goergen, Klaus and Trigo, Ricardo M.},
      title        = {{L}and‐{A}tmosphere {C}oupling {R}egimes in a {F}uture
                      {C}limate in {A}frica: {F}rom {M}odel {E}valuation to
                      {P}rojections {B}ased on {CORDEX}‐{A}frica},
      journal      = {Journal of geophysical research / D},
      volume       = {124},
      number       = {21},
      issn         = {0148-0227},
      address      = {Hoboken, NJ},
      publisher    = {Wiley},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2019-05432},
      pages        = {11118-11142},
      year         = {2019},
      abstract     = {Land‐atmosphere coupling plays a crucial role in
                      determining the evolution of weather and climate. In the
                      current study, the full ensemble of CORDEX‐Africa climate
                      change simulations is used to understand how strong and weak
                      coupling regions in Africa will evolve in the future. The
                      ability of the regional climate models to capture the
                      coupling signal relies on a reasonable representation of
                      near surface air temperature, precipitation, surface fluxes,
                      and soil moisture. A thorough model evaluation reveals
                      typical shortcomings in the representation of the African
                      climate, in particular seasonal precipitation. The
                      multimodel ensemble mean outperforms the individual models
                      and is therefore used for the investigation of the
                      land‐atmosphere coupling. This ensemble mean shows a
                      widespread warming in Africa and changes in precipitation,
                      such as a decrease in the Sahel during summer and an
                      increase in western Africa during summer and autumn. The
                      coupling analysis relies on surface fluxes, the related
                      evaporative fraction and their correlations as well as the
                      correlation between evaporative fraction and soil moisture.
                      Overall, water‐limited regions that exhibit a strong
                      land‐atmosphere coupling are projected to expand further
                      southward in West Africa and further northward in southern
                      Africa. This is particularly true over the Sahel during
                      spring and summer, when the strong coupling region shifts
                      southward, indicating a potential expansion of the semiarid
                      and arid regions. A transition of energy limited regimes,
                      with weak coupling, to water‐limited regimes where soil
                      moisture plays a more important role, is projected for the
                      end of the 21st century as drying continues.},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {255 - Terrestrial Systems: From Observation to Prediction
                      (POF3-255)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-255},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000499270600007},
      doi          = {10.1029/2018JD029473},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/866273},
}