000872706 001__ 872706 000872706 005__ 20210130004254.0 000872706 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.14512/tatup.28.3.20 000872706 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a0943-8246 000872706 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1619-7623 000872706 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a2199-9201 000872706 0247_ $$2Handle$$a2128/24310 000872706 0247_ $$2altmetric$$aaltmetric:76148454 000872706 037__ $$aFZJ-2020-00195 000872706 082__ $$a530 000872706 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)130491$$aVoegele, Stefan$$b0$$eCorresponding author$$ufzj 000872706 245__ $$aHow to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures 000872706 260__ $$aKarlsruhe$$bITAS$$c2019 000872706 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle 000872706 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOutput Types/Journal article 000872706 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)16$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aJournal Article$$bjournal$$mjournal$$s1581406605_29861 000872706 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aARTICLE 000872706 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aJOURNAL_ARTICLE 000872706 3367_ $$00$$2EndNote$$aJournal Article 000872706 520__ $$aEnergy scenarios currently in use for policy advise are based on a lot of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures as well as for the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary that can deal with the implementation of non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) Analysis can be utilized to map dynamic trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy futures and the contribution CIB Analysis can make therein 000872706 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$a153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)$$cPOF3-153$$fPOF III$$x0 000872706 588__ $$aDataset connected to CrossRef 000872706 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPoganietz, Witold-Roger$$b1 000872706 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMayer, Philip$$b2 000872706 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2039755-0$$a10.14512/tatup.28.3.20$$gVol. 29, no. 3, p. 20 - 26$$n3$$p20 - 26$$tTechnikfolgenabschätzung, Theorie und Praxis$$v29$$x2199-9201$$y2019 000872706 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/872706/files/3259-Article%20Text-6146-1-11-20191217.pdf$$yOpenAccess 000872706 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/872706/files/Voegele_etal.pdf$$yOpenAccess 000872706 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/872706/files/Voegele_etal.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yOpenAccess 000872706 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/872706/files/3259-Article%20Text-6146-1-11-20191217.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yOpenAccess 000872706 909CO $$ooai:juser.fz-juelich.de:872706$$pdnbdelivery$$pdriver$$pVDB$$popen_access$$popenaire 000872706 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)130491$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b0$$kFZJ 000872706 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF3-150$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF3-100$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF3$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$aDE-HGF$$bEnergie$$lTechnologie, Innovation und Gesellschaft$$vAssessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security$$x0 000872706 9141_ $$y2019 000872706 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0510$$2StatID$$aOpenAccess 000872706 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0501$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ Seal 000872706 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0500$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ 000872706 915__ $$0LIC:(DE-HGF)CCBY4$$2HGFVOC$$aCreative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0 000872706 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0030$$2StatID$$aPeer Review$$bDOAJ : Peer review 000872706 920__ $$lyes 000872706 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013$$kIEK-STE$$lSystemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung$$x0 000872706 980__ $$ajournal 000872706 980__ $$aVDB 000872706 980__ $$aUNRESTRICTED 000872706 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013 000872706 9801_ $$aFullTexts