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@ARTICLE{Voegele:872706,
      author       = {Voegele, Stefan and Poganietz, Witold-Roger and Mayer,
                      Philip},
      title        = {{H}ow to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy
                      futures},
      journal      = {Technikfolgenabschätzung, Theorie und Praxis},
      volume       = {29},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2199-9201},
      address      = {Karlsruhe},
      publisher    = {ITAS},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-00195},
      pages        = {20 - 26},
      year         = {2019},
      abstract     = {Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advise are
                      based on a lot of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in
                      particular, linear extrapolation of trends. However, this
                      approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly
                      dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures as
                      well as for the specification of measures, novel approaches
                      are necessary that can deal with the implementation of
                      non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how Cross-Impact
                      Balance (CIB) Analysis can be utilized to map dynamic
                      trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for
                      novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy
                      futures and the contribution CIB Analysis can make therein},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      ddc          = {530},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.14512/tatup.28.3.20},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/872706},
}