000878533 001__ 878533 000878533 005__ 20230531203011.0 000878533 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3016477 000878533 0247_ $$2Handle$$a2128/25563 000878533 0247_ $$2WOS$$aWOS:000562122600001 000878533 037__ $$aFZJ-2020-02896 000878533 082__ $$a621.3 000878533 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)179250$$aKruse, Johannes$$b0$$eCorresponding author 000878533 245__ $$aPredictability of power grid frequency 000878533 260__ $$aNew York, NY$$bIEEE$$c2020 000878533 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle 000878533 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOutput Types/Journal article 000878533 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)16$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aJournal Article$$bjournal$$mjournal$$s1599540040_7538 000878533 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aARTICLE 000878533 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aJOURNAL_ARTICLE 000878533 3367_ $$00$$2EndNote$$aJournal Article 000878533 500__ $$aAaditional funding not listed by the system: European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme through the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant under Agreement 840825 000878533 520__ $$aThe power grid frequency is the central observable in power system control, as it measures thebalance of electrical supply and demand. A reliable frequency forecast can facilitate rapid control actions andmay thus greatly improve power system stability. Here, we develop a weighted-nearest-neighbour (WNN) predictor to investigate how predictable the frequency trajectories are. Our forecasts for up to one hourare more precise than averaged daily profiles and could increase the efficiency of frequency control actions.Furthermore, we gain an increased understanding of the specific properties of different synchronous areas byinterpreting the optimal prediction parameters (number of nearest neighbours, the prediction horizon, etc.)in terms of the physical system. Finally, prediction errors indicate the occurrence of exceptional externalperturbations. Overall, we provide a diagnostics tool and an accurate predictor of the power grid frequencytime series, allowing better understanding of the underlying dynamics. 000878533 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$a153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)$$cPOF3-153$$fPOF III$$x0 000878533 536__ $$0G:(DE-JUEL1)BMBF-03EK3055B$$aCoNDyNet 2 - Kollektive Nichtlineare Dynamik Komplexer Stromnetze (BMBF-03EK3055B)$$cBMBF-03EK3055B$$x1 000878533 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)ES2050$$aES2050 - Energie Sytem 2050 (ES2050)$$cES2050$$x2 000878533 536__ $$0G:(HGF)VH-NG-1025_20112014$$aVH-NG-1025 - Helmholtz Young Investigators Group "Efficiency, Emergence and Economics of future supply networks" (VH-NG-1025_20112014)$$cVH-NG-1025_20112014$$x3 000878533 536__ $$0G:(DE-Juel1)HDS-LEE-20190612$$aHDS LEE - Helmholtz School for Data Science in Life, Earth and Energy (HDS LEE) (HDS-LEE-20190612)$$cHDS-LEE-20190612$$x4 000878533 588__ $$aDataset connected to CrossRef 000878533 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSchäfer, Benjamin$$b1 000878533 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)162277$$aWitthaut, Dirk$$b2 000878533 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2687964-5$$a10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3016477$$gVol. 8, p. 149435 - 149446$$p149435 - 149446$$tIEEE access$$v8$$x2169-3536$$y2020 000878533 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/878533/files/09166474.pdf$$yOpenAccess 000878533 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/878533/files/09166474.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yOpenAccess 000878533 8767_ $$d2023-05-31$$eAPC$$jPublish and Read$$zToken 000878533 909CO $$ooai:juser.fz-juelich.de:878533$$pVDB$$pdriver$$pOpenAPC$$popen_access$$popenaire$$pdnbdelivery$$popenCost 000878533 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)179250$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b0$$kFZJ 000878533 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)162277$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b2$$kFZJ 000878533 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF3-150$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF3-100$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF3$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$aDE-HGF$$bEnergie$$lTechnologie, Innovation und Gesellschaft$$vAssessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security$$x0 000878533 9141_ $$y2020 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0200$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bSCOPUS$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0160$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bEssential Science Indicators$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1230$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Electronics and Telecommunications Collection$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0LIC:(DE-HGF)CCBY4$$2HGFVOC$$aCreative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0100$$2StatID$$aJCR$$bIEEE ACCESS : 2018$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0501$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ Seal$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0500$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0111$$2StatID$$aWoS$$bScience Citation Index Expanded$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0700$$2StatID$$aFees$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0150$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bWeb of Science Core Collection$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)9900$$2StatID$$aIF < 5$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0510$$2StatID$$aOpenAccess 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0030$$2StatID$$aPeer Review$$bDOAJ : Blind peer review$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0561$$2StatID$$aArticle Processing Charges$$f2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1160$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Engineering, Computing and Technology$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0300$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bMedline$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0199$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bClarivate Analytics Master Journal List$$d2020-01-15 000878533 915pc $$0PC:(DE-HGF)0000$$2APC$$aAPC keys set 000878533 915pc $$0PC:(DE-HGF)0001$$2APC$$aLocal Funding 000878533 915pc $$0PC:(DE-HGF)0002$$2APC$$aDFG OA Publikationskosten 000878533 915pc $$0PC:(DE-HGF)0003$$2APC$$aDOAJ Journal 000878533 920__ $$lyes 000878533 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013$$kIEK-STE$$lSystemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung$$x0 000878533 9801_ $$aFullTexts 000878533 980__ $$ajournal 000878533 980__ $$aVDB 000878533 980__ $$aUNRESTRICTED 000878533 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013 000878533 980__ $$aAPC