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@ARTICLE{Kruse:878533,
      author       = {Kruse, Johannes and Schäfer, Benjamin and Witthaut, Dirk},
      title        = {{P}redictability of power grid frequency},
      journal      = {IEEE access},
      volume       = {8},
      issn         = {2169-3536},
      address      = {New York, NY},
      publisher    = {IEEE},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-02896},
      pages        = {149435 - 149446},
      year         = {2020},
      note         = {Aaditional funding not listed by the system: European
                      Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme
                      through the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant under Agreement
                      840825},
      abstract     = {The power grid frequency is the central observable in power
                      system control, as it measures thebalance of electrical
                      supply and demand. A reliable frequency forecast can
                      facilitate rapid control actions andmay thus greatly improve
                      power system stability. Here, we develop a
                      weighted-nearest-neighbour (WNN) predictor to investigate
                      how predictable the frequency trajectories are. Our
                      forecasts for up to one hourare more precise than averaged
                      daily profiles and could increase the efficiency of
                      frequency control actions.Furthermore, we gain an increased
                      understanding of the specific properties of different
                      synchronous areas byinterpreting the optimal prediction
                      parameters (number of nearest neighbours, the prediction
                      horizon, etc.)in terms of the physical system. Finally,
                      prediction errors indicate the occurrence of exceptional
                      externalperturbations. Overall, we provide a diagnostics
                      tool and an accurate predictor of the power grid
                      frequencytime series, allowing better understanding of the
                      underlying dynamics.},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      ddc          = {621.3},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) / CoNDyNet
                      2 - Kollektive Nichtlineare Dynamik Komplexer Stromnetze
                      (BMBF-03EK3055B) / ES2050 - Energie Sytem 2050 (ES2050) /
                      VH-NG-1025 - Helmholtz Young Investigators Group
                      "Efficiency, Emergence and Economics of future supply
                      networks" $(VH-NG-1025_20112014)$ / HDS LEE - Helmholtz
                      School for Data Science in Life, Earth and Energy (HDS LEE)
                      (HDS-LEE-20190612)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153 / G:(DE-JUEL1)BMBF-03EK3055B /
                      G:(DE-HGF)ES2050 / $G:(HGF)VH-NG-1025_20112014$ /
                      G:(DE-Juel1)HDS-LEE-20190612},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000562122600001},
      doi          = {10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3016477},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/878533},
}