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@ARTICLE{LavinGullon:878775,
      author       = {Lavin‐Gullon, Alvaro and Fernandez, Jesus and Bastin,
                      Sophie and Cardoso, Rita M. and Fita, Lluis and Giannaros,
                      Theodore M. and Görgen, Klaus and Gutierrez, Jose Manuel
                      and Kartsios, Stergios and Katragkou, Eleni and Lorenz,
                      Torge and Milovac, Josipa and Soares, Pedro M. M. and
                      Sobolowski, Stefan and Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten},
      title        = {{I}nternal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty
                      in a regional climate model},
      journal      = {International journal of climatology},
      volume       = {41},
      number       = {S1},
      issn         = {1097-0088},
      address      = {Chichester [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Wiley},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-03037},
      pages        = {E656-E671},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {In a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of
                      an ensemble of convection‐permitting models (CPM) to
                      simulate deep convection using three case studies. The
                      ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models,
                      which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed
                      some light on the issue, we quantify in this article the
                      uncertainty associated to different physical
                      parameterizations from that of using different initial
                      conditions, often referred to as the internal variability.
                      For this purpose, we establish a framework to quantify both
                      signals and we compare them for upper atmospheric
                      circulation and near‐surface variables. The analysis is
                      carried out in the context of the CORDEX Flagship Pilot
                      Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe
                      and the Mediterranean, in which the intermediate RCM WRF
                      simulations that serve to drive the CPM are run several
                      times with different parameterizations. For atmospheric
                      circulation (geopotential height), the sensitivity induced
                      by multi‐physics and the internal variability show
                      comparable magnitudes and a similar spatial distribution
                      pattern. For 2‐m temperature and 10‐m wind, the
                      simulations with different parameterizations show larger
                      differences than those launched with different initial
                      conditions. The systematic effect over 1 year shows
                      distinct patterns for the multi‐physics and the internal
                      variability. Therefore, the general lesson of this study is
                      that internal variability should be analysed in order to
                      properly distinguish the impact of other sources of
                      uncertainty, especially for short‐term sensitivity
                      simulations.},
      cin          = {IBG-3 / JARA-HPC},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
      pnm          = {2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217) / Convection-permitting regional climate
                      modelling: Contribution to WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study
                      ensemble over Europe and joint analysis of water cycle
                      processes and properties $(jjsc39_20190501)$},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jjsc39_20190501$},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000550663400001},
      doi          = {10.1002/joc.6717},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/878775},
}