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@ARTICLE{Barbarossa:884063,
      author       = {Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria and Fuhrmann, Jan and Meinke,
                      Jan and Krieg, Stefan and Varma, Hridya Vinod and
                      Castelletti, Noemi and Lippert, Thomas},
      title        = {{M}odeling the spread of {COVID}-19 in {G}ermany: {E}arly
                      assessment and possible scenarios},
      journal      = {PLOS ONE},
      volume       = {15},
      number       = {9},
      issn         = {1932-6203},
      address      = {San Francisco, California, US},
      publisher    = {PLOS},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-03072},
      pages        = {e0238559 -},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at
                      the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19,
                      has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about
                      2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as
                      of April 17, 2020. In this work, mathematical models are
                      used to reproduce data of the early evolution of the
                      COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, taking into account the effect
                      of actual and hypothetical non-pharmaceutical interventions.
                      Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended
                      to account for undetected infections, stages of infection,
                      and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until
                      April 5. Data from April 6 to 14 are used for model
                      validation. We simulate different possible strategies for
                      the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the
                      spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily
                      diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive
                      care units admissions, and eventually the number of
                      fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual)
                      lifting of introduced control measures could soon be
                      possible if accompanied by further increased testing
                      activity, strict isolation of detected cases, and reduced
                      contact to risk groups.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {511 - Computational Science and Mathematical Methods
                      (POF3-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-511},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:32886696},
      UT           = {WOS:000571064300005},
      doi          = {10.1371/journal.pone.0238559},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/884063},
}