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@ARTICLE{Fuhrmann:884065,
      author       = {Fuhrmann, Jan and Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria},
      title        = {{T}he significance of case detection ratios for predictions
                      on the outcome of an epidemic - a message from mathematical
                      modelers},
      journal      = {Archives of public health},
      volume       = {78},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {2049-3258},
      address      = {Bruxelles},
      publisher    = {Archives},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-03074},
      pages        = {63},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {In attempting to predict the further course of the novel
                      coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by
                      SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are
                      frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers.
                      Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the
                      uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or
                      conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models
                      make assumptions about the percentage of detected cases
                      among total infections while others completely neglect
                      undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections
                      about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under
                      varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in
                      model predictions can be significantly reduced by
                      representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus
                      RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone
                      undetected thus far.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {511 - Computational Science and Mathematical Methods
                      (POF3-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-511},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:32685147},
      UT           = {WOS:000553302200001},
      doi          = {10.1186/s13690-020-00445-8},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/884065},
}