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@ARTICLE{Govorukha:884116,
      author       = {Govorukha, Kristina and Mayer, Philip and Rübbelke, Dirk
                      and Voegele, Stefan},
      title        = {{E}conomic {D}isruptions in {L}ong-{T}erm {E}nergy
                      {S}cenarios – {I}mplications for {D}esigning {E}nergy
                      {P}olicy},
      journal      = {Energy},
      volume       = {212},
      issn         = {0360-5442},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier Science},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-03103},
      pages        = {118737},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {The main drivers of the transformation processes affecting
                      electricity markets stem from climate policies and changing
                      economic environments. In order to analyse the respective
                      developments, modelling approaches regularly rely on
                      multiple structural and parametric simplifications. For
                      example, discontinuities in economic development (e.g.,
                      business cycles) are frequently disregarded. The distorting
                      effects caused by such simplifications tend to scale up as
                      the time horizons of such analyses increase, and can
                      significantly affect the accuracy of long-term projections.
                      In this study, we include information on economic
                      discontinuities and elaborate on their influences. Based on
                      historical data, we identify the impact of changes in
                      economic parameters and examine their cumulative effect on
                      the German electricity market by applying a techno-economic
                      electricity market model for the period from 2005 to 2014.
                      Similar changes may occur repeatedly in the future, and we
                      expect that a more comprehensive understanding of their
                      effects will increase the validity of long-term scenario
                      assessments. Although dynamic developments have taken place
                      in the past, their effects on such scenarios are regularly
                      ignored. Results indicate that policy decision-making based
                      on modelling frameworks can benefit from a in-depth
                      understanding of the underlying simplifications made in most
                      scenario studies.},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      ddc          = {600},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000596123000008},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.energy.2020.118737},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/884116},
}