% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded. This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.
@PHDTHESIS{Ryberg:888333,
author = {Ryberg, Severin David},
title = {{G}eneration {L}ulls from the {F}uture {P}otential of
{W}ind and {S}olar {E}nergy in {E}urope},
volume = {521},
school = {RWTH Aachen},
type = {Dissertation},
address = {Jülich},
publisher = {Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag},
reportid = {FZJ-2020-04852},
isbn = {978-3-95806-513-0},
series = {Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Energie
$\&$ Umwelt / Energy $\&$ Environment},
pages = {xxvii, 398 S.},
year = {2020},
note = {Dissertation, RWTH Aachen, 2020},
abstract = {A future European energy system that primarily relies on
variable renewable energy sources (VRES) such as wind
turbines and photo-voltaic (PV) modules is becoming
increasingly conceivable. Nevertheless, the role that VRES
could play in future energy systems is still uncertain.
Besides the well-known uncertainties resulting from the
intermittency of these technologies, other questions remain
in relation to their future design, spatial distribution,
and expected operation. Additionally, there is a possibility
that generation lulls could occasionally align across a
broad regionand, as a result, cast the energy system into an
energy deficit. Little is known of these VRES lulls,
primarily in regards to where and how often they might
occur, how long they will last, and how deep their deficits
will be. Before the optimal future energy system can be
designed, both VRES potential and the lulls that can
occurneed to be understood at deeper level. Therefore, the
aim of the current work is to evaluate the potential of
future wind and PV generation in Europe by considering in
detail their spatial, temporal, and future design
characteristics, and furthermore touse the developed methods
to investigate the occurrence of VRES lulls within the
context of an exemplary future European energy system. To
perform this work, projections are made of the
spatially-sensitive future design of onshore wind turbines,
open-field PV parks, and rooftop PV systems by observing
past trends and evaluating optimal system configurations.
Geospatial land eligibility constraints are uniquely
incorporated for these technologies over the entire European
context, after which individual turbines, PV parks, and
rooftop areas in residential zones are identified.
Computationally efficient simulations tools are also
developed to perform hourly-resolved simulations of all
potential turbines, parks, and rooftop areas for the weather
years 1980 until 2016. With these tools, the total capacity
and generation potential of onshore wind, open-field PV and
rooftop PV across Europe are found. VRES lulls are at last
investigated by reconstructing aliterature-sourced scenario
of a future European energy system designed for $100\%$
reliance on renewable energy sources. Lull investigations
are performed for three contexts considering: only the VRES
generation, electricity demand without grid limitations, and
finally the full operation of the energy system complete
with grid limitations and backup orchestration via power
flow optimization. As a result of this work, total annual
generation potential from onshore wind, openfield PV, and
rooftop PV generation in Europe amounts to 58PWh, of which
slightly over 20PWh will be available at a cost below 4
ct$_\epsilon$ kWh$^{-1}$. In terms of VRES lulls, it is seen
that wind and PV offer complementary generation leading to
lull lengths around 80\% shorter than when any technology is
evaluated independently. When aggregated at the European
level without grid congestion, uninterrupted generation from
VRES sources is found equal to 11\% of the hourly average
over all years; indicating that a base generation from VRES
sources in Europe is conceivable. Nevertheless when
considering electricity demand then, without grid
limitation, lulls are always observed at the European level
until a back-up capacity of 102\% of the average hourly
demand is available. With full energy system operation,
lullsoccurring in 1\% of years were consistently seen around
20 days at the national level, and total energy deficits
across Europe were found up to 8.56 TWh. Similarly, in these
rare years, total VRES backup capacity across Europe of 501
GW, with fullregional cooperation, up to 738 GW, with
regional self-reliance, is needed.},
cin = {IEK-3},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-3-20101013},
pnm = {899 - ohne Topic (POF3-899)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-899},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)3 / PUB:(DE-HGF)11},
urn = {urn:nbn:de:0001-2020120322},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/888333},
}