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@PHDTHESIS{Ryberg:888333,
      author       = {Ryberg, Severin David},
      title        = {{G}eneration {L}ulls from the {F}uture {P}otential of
                      {W}ind and {S}olar {E}nergy in {E}urope},
      volume       = {521},
      school       = {RWTH Aachen},
      type         = {Dissertation},
      address      = {Jülich},
      publisher    = {Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2020-04852},
      isbn         = {978-3-95806-513-0},
      series       = {Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Energie
                      $\&$ Umwelt / Energy $\&$ Environment},
      pages        = {xxvii, 398 S.},
      year         = {2020},
      note         = {Dissertation, RWTH Aachen, 2020},
      abstract     = {A future European energy system that primarily relies on
                      variable renewable energy sources (VRES) such as wind
                      turbines and photo-voltaic (PV) modules is becoming
                      increasingly conceivable. Nevertheless, the role that VRES
                      could play in future energy systems is still uncertain.
                      Besides the well-known uncertainties resulting from the
                      intermittency of these technologies, other questions remain
                      in relation to their future design, spatial distribution,
                      and expected operation. Additionally, there is a possibility
                      that generation lulls could occasionally align across a
                      broad regionand, as a result, cast the energy system into an
                      energy deficit. Little is known of these VRES lulls,
                      primarily in regards to where and how often they might
                      occur, how long they will last, and how deep their deficits
                      will be. Before the optimal future energy system can be
                      designed, both VRES potential and the lulls that can
                      occurneed to be understood at deeper level. Therefore, the
                      aim of the current work is to evaluate the potential of
                      future wind and PV generation in Europe by considering in
                      detail their spatial, temporal, and future design
                      characteristics, and furthermore touse the developed methods
                      to investigate the occurrence of VRES lulls within the
                      context of an exemplary future European energy system. To
                      perform this work, projections are made of the
                      spatially-sensitive future design of onshore wind turbines,
                      open-field PV parks, and rooftop PV systems by observing
                      past trends and evaluating optimal system configurations.
                      Geospatial land eligibility constraints are uniquely
                      incorporated for these technologies over the entire European
                      context, after which individual turbines, PV parks, and
                      rooftop areas in residential zones are identified.
                      Computationally efficient simulations tools are also
                      developed to perform hourly-resolved simulations of all
                      potential turbines, parks, and rooftop areas for the weather
                      years 1980 until 2016. With these tools, the total capacity
                      and generation potential of onshore wind, open-field PV and
                      rooftop PV across Europe are found. VRES lulls are at last
                      investigated by reconstructing aliterature-sourced scenario
                      of a future European energy system designed for $100\%$
                      reliance on renewable energy sources. Lull investigations
                      are performed for three contexts considering: only the VRES
                      generation, electricity demand without grid limitations, and
                      finally the full operation of the energy system complete
                      with grid limitations and backup orchestration via power
                      flow optimization. As a result of this work, total annual
                      generation potential from onshore wind, openfield PV, and
                      rooftop PV generation in Europe amounts to 58PWh, of which
                      slightly over 20PWh will be available at a cost below 4
                      ct$_\epsilon$ kWh$^{-1}$. In terms of VRES lulls, it is seen
                      that wind and PV offer complementary generation leading to
                      lull lengths around 80\% shorter than when any technology is
                      evaluated independently. When aggregated at the European
                      level without grid congestion, uninterrupted generation from
                      VRES sources is found equal to 11\% of the hourly average
                      over all years; indicating that a base generation from VRES
                      sources in Europe is conceivable. Nevertheless when
                      considering electricity demand then, without grid
                      limitation, lulls are always observed at the European level
                      until a back-up capacity of 102\% of the average hourly
                      demand is available. With full energy system operation,
                      lullsoccurring in 1\% of years were consistently seen around
                      20 days at the national level, and total energy deficits
                      across Europe were found up to 8.56 TWh. Similarly, in these
                      rare years, total VRES backup capacity across Europe of 501
                      GW, with fullregional cooperation, up to 738 GW, with
                      regional self-reliance, is needed.},
      cin          = {IEK-3},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-3-20101013},
      pnm          = {899 - ohne Topic (POF3-899)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-899},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)3 / PUB:(DE-HGF)11},
      urn          = {urn:nbn:de:0001-2020120322},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/888333},
}