000889265 001__ 889265 000889265 005__ 20240712101059.0 000889265 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.117063 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a0004-6981 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1352-2310 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1873-2844 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a(BIS 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1989) 000889265 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1878-2442 000889265 0247_ $$2Handle$$a2128/26742 000889265 0247_ $$2WOS$$aWOS:000501407200007 000889265 037__ $$aFZJ-2021-00170 000889265 082__ $$a690 000889265 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)171397$$aVogel, Annika$$b0$$eCorresponding author 000889265 245__ $$aAnalyzing highly uncertain source regions in the Ex-UTLS and their effects on small-scale atmospheric composition using probabilistic retroplume calculations 000889265 260__ $$aAmsterdam [u.a.]$$bElsevier Science$$c2020 000889265 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle 000889265 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOutput Types/Journal article 000889265 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)16$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aJournal Article$$bjournal$$mjournal$$s1615795770_22097 000889265 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aARTICLE 000889265 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aJOURNAL_ARTICLE 000889265 3367_ $$00$$2EndNote$$aJournal Article 000889265 520__ $$aForecasts of atmospheric composition in the Ex-UTLS (extratropical upper troposphere – lower stratosphere) are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the source regions of air masses. This study investigates the reliability of calculated source regions and their effects on trace gas distributions in this region. For this purpose, an ensemble-based probabilistic retroplume approach is developed to track source regions of air masses. This approach provides the ability to account for both, (i) the contribution of different source regions to an air mass by adjoint diffusion and (ii) the uncertainty of theses source regions with respect to forecast dynamics. Probabilistic retroplume calculations are applied to an air mass in the vicinity of a weak saddle-point in the Ex-UTLS in order to investigate its effect on source regions. The results indicate high sensitivity of source regions to uncertainties in atmospheric transport revealed by perturbed meteorological forecasts. Additionally considering the sources of surrounding air masses leads to even larger spread of source regions. Spreading over large parts of Europe and altitudes between 8 and 14 km within two days, probable source regions comprise completely opposite transport-directions. This large uncertainty of source regions show significant effect on atmospheric composition in the vicinity of the saddle-point on a short timescale. Evaluating the effect of meteorological uncertainties on local distributions of trace gases, ozone concentrations range from 50 to 350 ppbv at the same location. Probabilistic retroplume calculations suggest a clear connection between these concentrations and related source regions. 000889265 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-244$$a244 - Composition and dynamics of the upper troposphere and middle atmosphere (POF3-244)$$cPOF3-244$$fPOF III$$x0 000889265 588__ $$aDataset connected to CrossRef 000889265 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129105$$aUngermann, Jörn$$b1$$ufzj 000889265 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129194$$aElbern, Hendrik$$b2$$ufzj 000889265 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)1499889-0$$a10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.117063$$gVol. 220, p. 117063 -$$p117063 -$$tAtmospheric environment$$v220$$x1352-2310$$y2020 000889265 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/889265/files/W1526373.pdf 000889265 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/889265/files/GLORIAuncertATM-ENV_manuscript-reviewed2_highlighted.pdf$$yOpenAccess 000889265 8767_ $$8W152373$$92019-10-29$$d2019-10-30$$eColour charges$$jZahlung erfolgt 000889265 909CO $$ooai:juser.fz-juelich.de:889265$$pdnbdelivery$$popenCost$$pVDB$$pVDB:Earth_Environment$$pdriver$$pOpenAPC$$popen_access$$popenaire 000889265 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)129105$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b1$$kFZJ 000889265 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)129194$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b2$$kFZJ 000889265 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-244$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF3-240$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF3-200$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF3$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$aDE-HGF$$bErde und Umwelt$$lAtmosphäre und Klima$$vComposition and dynamics of the upper troposphere and middle atmosphere$$x0 000889265 9132_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF4-899$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF4-890$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF4-800$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF4$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$aDE-HGF$$bProgrammungebundene Forschung$$lohne Programm$$vohne Topic$$x0 000889265 9141_ $$y2020 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0200$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bSCOPUS$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0300$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bMedline$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1050$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bBIOSIS Previews$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1190$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bBiological Abstracts$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0600$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bEbsco Academic Search$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1150$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Physical, Chemical and Earth Sciences$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0113$$2StatID$$aWoS$$bScience Citation Index Expanded$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0150$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bWeb of Science Core Collection$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)9900$$2StatID$$aIF < 5$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0510$$2StatID$$aOpenAccess 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0030$$2StatID$$aPeer Review$$bASC$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1060$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Agriculture, Biology and Environmental Sciences$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0100$$2StatID$$aJCR$$bATMOS ENVIRON : 2018$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0160$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bEssential Science Indicators$$d2020-09-05 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0420$$2StatID$$aNationallizenz$$d2020-09-05$$wger 000889265 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0199$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bClarivate Analytics Master Journal List$$d2020-09-05 000889265 920__ $$lyes 000889265 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-7-20101013$$kIEK-7$$lStratosphäre$$x0 000889265 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013$$kIEK-8$$lTroposphäre$$x1 000889265 9801_ $$aAPC 000889265 9801_ $$aFullTexts 000889265 980__ $$ajournal 000889265 980__ $$aVDB 000889265 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-7-20101013 000889265 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013 000889265 980__ $$aAPC 000889265 980__ $$aUNRESTRICTED 000889265 981__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)ICE-4-20101013 000889265 981__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)ICE-3-20101013 000889265 981__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)ICE-3-20101013