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@ARTICLE{Hartick:889986,
      author       = {Hartick, Carl and Furusho‐Percot, Carina and Goergen,
                      Klaus and Kollet, Stefan},
      title        = {{A}n {I}nterannual {P}robabilistic {A}ssessment of
                      {S}ubsurface {W}ater {S}torage {O}ver {E}urope {U}sing a
                      {F}ully {C}oupled {T}errestrial {M}odel},
      journal      = {Water resources research},
      volume       = {57},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {1944-7973},
      address      = {[New York]},
      publisher    = {Wiley},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-00581},
      pages        = {1-17},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {The years 2018 and 2019 were two of the hottest and driest
                      in Mid‐Europe, highlighting the need for a comprehensive
                      assessment of available water resources. In this study, we
                      propose a probabilistic, terrestrial water assessment
                      method, which utilizes a terrestrial forward model that
                      closes the coupled water and energy cycles, from groundwater
                      to the top of the atmosphere. In this methodology, the model
                      is initialized with the current state of the water year and
                      forced with a climatologic ensemble of atmospheric forcing
                      to account for atmospheric uncertainty and natural
                      variability. The simulations result in an ensemble of
                      ensuing water years that are analyzed for subsurface water
                      storage anomalies. The methodology was applied to the water
                      years 2011/2012 and 2018/2019 and showed an increased
                      probability of a significant water deficit in regions that
                      had a water deficit in the previous year. This was also
                      observed in an evaluation simulation. The results were
                      compared to simulations with perfect forcing and uncertain
                      initial conditions, and showed predictability at the
                      interannual timescale and beyond, depending on the strength
                      of the anomaly. The methodology was then applied to
                      2019/2020 to provide an outlook of the evolution of the
                      current anomalies. The results emphasize the importance of
                      accounting for groundwater dynamics in applied terrestrial
                      models to account for long‐term memory effects in the
                      terrestrial water cycle in forward simulations, over large
                      spatial scales. This method of probabilistic subsurface
                      water storage assessment may provide crucial information to
                      public and industrial sectors for long‐term water resource
                      planning.},
      cin          = {IBG-3 / NIC},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118 / I:(DE-Juel1)NIC-20090406},
      pnm          = {2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217) / ESM Advanced Earth System Modelling Capacity
                      $(jibg35_20190501)$},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jibg35_20190501$},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000618001100011},
      doi          = {10.1029/2020WR027828},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/889986},
}