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@ARTICLE{Gierens:890250,
      author       = {Gierens, Klaus and Matthes, Sigrun and Rohs, Susanne},
      title        = {{H}ow {W}ell {C}an {P}ersistent {C}ontrails {B}e
                      {P}redicted?},
      journal      = {Aerospace},
      volume       = {7},
      number       = {12},
      issn         = {2226-4310},
      address      = {Basel},
      publisher    = {MDPI},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-00834},
      pages        = {169 -},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {Persistent contrails and contrail cirrus are responsible
                      for a large part of aviation induced radiative forcing. A
                      considerable fraction of their warming effect could be
                      eliminated by diverting only a quite small fraction of
                      flight paths, namely those that produce the highest
                      individual radiative forcing (iRF). In order to make this a
                      viable mitigation strategy it is necessary that aviation
                      weather forecast is able to predict (i) when and where
                      contrails are formed, (ii) which of these are persistent,
                      and (iii) how large the iRF of those contrails would be.
                      Here we study several data bases together with weather data
                      in order to see whether such a forecast would currently be
                      possible. It turns out that the formation of contrails can
                      be predicted with some success, but there are problems to
                      predict contrail persistence. The underlying reason for this
                      is that while the temperature field is quite good in weather
                      prediction and climate simulations with specified dynamics,
                      this is not so for the relative humidity in general and for
                      ice supersaturation in particular. However we find that the
                      weather model shows the dynamical peculiarities that are
                      expected for ice supersaturated regions where strong
                      contrails are indeed found in satellite data. This justifies
                      some hope that the prediction of strong contrails may be
                      possible via general regression involving the dynamical
                      state of the ambient atmosphere.},
      cin          = {IEK-8},
      ddc          = {530},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {243 - Tropospheric trace substances and their
                      transformation processes (POF3-243)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-243},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000601762700001},
      doi          = {10.3390/aerospace7120169},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/890250},
}