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@ARTICLE{Nickl:890295,
      author       = {Nickl, Anna-Leah and Mertens, Mariano and Roiger, Anke and
                      Fix, Andreas and Amediek, Axel and Fiehn, Alina and Gerbig,
                      Christoph and Galkowski, Michal and Kerkweg, Astrid and
                      Klausner, Theresa and Eckl, Maximilian and Jöckel, Patrick},
      title        = {{H}indcasting and forecasting of regional methane from coal
                      mine emissions in the {U}pper {S}ilesian {C}oal {B}asin
                      using the online nested global regional chemistry–climate
                      model {MECO}(n) ({MESS}y v2.53)},
      journal      = {Geoscientific model development},
      volume       = {13},
      number       = {4},
      issn         = {1991-9603},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {Copernicus},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-00876},
      pages        = {1925 - 1943},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas in
                      terms of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Since
                      pre-industrial times, the globally averaged dry mole
                      fraction of methane in the atmosphere has increased
                      considerably. Emissions from coal mining are one of the
                      primary anthropogenic methane sources. However, our
                      knowledge about different sources and sinks of methane is
                      still subject to great uncertainties. Comprehensive
                      measurement campaigns and reliable chemistry–climate
                      models, are required to fully understand the global methane
                      budget and to further develop future climate mitigation
                      strategies. The CoMet 1.0 campaign (May to June 2018)
                      combined airborne in situ, as well as passive and active
                      remote sensing measurements to quantify the emissions from
                      coal mining in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB, Poland).
                      Roughly 502 kt of methane is emitted from the ventilation
                      shafts per year. In order to help with the flight planning
                      during the campaigns, we performed 6 d forecasts using the
                      online coupled, three-time nested global and regional
                      chemistry–climate model MECO(n). We applied three-nested
                      COSMO/MESSy instances going down to a spatial resolution of
                      2.8 km over the USCB. The nested global–regional model
                      system allows for the separation of local emission
                      contributions from fluctuations in the background methane.
                      Here, we introduce the forecast set-up and assess the impact
                      of the model's spatial resolution on the simulation of
                      methane plumes from the ventilation shafts. Uncertainties in
                      simulated methane mixing ratios are estimated by comparing
                      different airborne measurements to the simulations. Results
                      show that MECO(3) is able to simulate the observed methane
                      plumes and the large-scale patterns (including vertically
                      integrated values) reasonably well. Furthermore, we obtain
                      reasonable forecast results up to forecast day four.},
      cin          = {IEK-8},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {243 - Tropospheric trace substances and their
                      transformation processes (POF3-243)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-243},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000527744800001},
      doi          = {10.5194/gmd-13-1925-2020},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/890295},
}