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@ARTICLE{Pichelli:890441,
      author       = {Pichelli, Emanuela and Coppola, Erika and Sobolowski,
                      Stefan and Ban, Nikolina and Giorgi, Filippo and Stocchi,
                      Paolo and Alias, Antoinette and Belušić, Danijel and
                      Berthou, Segolene and Caillaud, Cecile and Cardoso, Rita M.
                      and Chan, Steven and Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Dobler,
                      Andreas and de Vries, Hylke and Görgen, Klaus and Kendon,
                      Elizabeth J. and Keuler, Klaus and Lenderink, Geert and
                      Lorenz, Torge and Mishra, Aditya N. and Panitz, Hans-Juergen
                      and Schär, Christoph and Soares, Pedro M. M. and Truhetz,
                      Heimo and Vergara-Temprado, Jesus},
      title        = {{T}he first multi-model ensemble of regional climate
                      simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical
                      and future simulations of precipitation},
      journal      = {Climate dynamics},
      volume       = {56},
      number       = {11},
      issn         = {1432-0894},
      address      = {Heidelberg},
      publisher    = {Springer},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-00957},
      pages        = {3581–3602},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of
                      10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale
                      regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled
                      from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end
                      of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale
                      the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km
                      resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to
                      downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the
                      paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the
                      precipitation characteristics and their projected changes
                      over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional
                      Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the
                      European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with
                      investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale.
                      An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different
                      research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations
                      are evaluated through comparison with high resolution
                      observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km
                      resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate
                      the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The
                      results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to
                      improve the representation of fine scale details of mean
                      daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and
                      heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing
                      uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the
                      representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more
                      realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale
                      ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of
                      change from the coarser resolution simulations and even
                      modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and
                      heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection
                      permitting simulations also show larger changes for all
                      indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in
                      the duration of convection over some regions. A larger
                      positive change of frequency of heavy to severe
                      precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards
                      the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce
                      robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate
                      change},
      cin          = {IBG-3 / JARA-HPC},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
      pnm          = {217 - Für eine nachhaltige Bio-Ökonomie – von
                      Ressourcen zu Produkten (POF4-217) / Convection-permitting
                      regional climate modelling: Contribution to WCRP CORDEX
                      Flagship Pilot Study ensemble over Europe and joint analysis
                      of water cycle processes and properties $(jjsc39_20190501)$
                      / 2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-217 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jjsc39_20190501$ /
                      G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000613614500002},
      doi          = {10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/890441},
}