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@ARTICLE{Pichelli:890441,
author = {Pichelli, Emanuela and Coppola, Erika and Sobolowski,
Stefan and Ban, Nikolina and Giorgi, Filippo and Stocchi,
Paolo and Alias, Antoinette and Belušić, Danijel and
Berthou, Segolene and Caillaud, Cecile and Cardoso, Rita M.
and Chan, Steven and Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Dobler,
Andreas and de Vries, Hylke and Görgen, Klaus and Kendon,
Elizabeth J. and Keuler, Klaus and Lenderink, Geert and
Lorenz, Torge and Mishra, Aditya N. and Panitz, Hans-Juergen
and Schär, Christoph and Soares, Pedro M. M. and Truhetz,
Heimo and Vergara-Temprado, Jesus},
title = {{T}he first multi-model ensemble of regional climate
simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical
and future simulations of precipitation},
journal = {Climate dynamics},
volume = {56},
number = {11},
issn = {1432-0894},
address = {Heidelberg},
publisher = {Springer},
reportid = {FZJ-2021-00957},
pages = {3581–3602},
year = {2021},
abstract = {This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of
10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale
regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled
from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end
of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale
the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km
resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to
downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the
paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the
precipitation characteristics and their projected changes
over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional
Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the
European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with
investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale.
An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different
research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations
are evaluated through comparison with high resolution
observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km
resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate
the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The
results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to
improve the representation of fine scale details of mean
daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and
heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing
uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the
representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more
realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale
ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of
change from the coarser resolution simulations and even
modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and
heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection
permitting simulations also show larger changes for all
indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in
the duration of convection over some regions. A larger
positive change of frequency of heavy to severe
precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards
the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce
robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate
change},
cin = {IBG-3 / JARA-HPC},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
pnm = {217 - Für eine nachhaltige Bio-Ökonomie – von
Ressourcen zu Produkten (POF4-217) / Convection-permitting
regional climate modelling: Contribution to WCRP CORDEX
Flagship Pilot Study ensemble over Europe and joint analysis
of water cycle processes and properties $(jjsc39_20190501)$
/ 2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
(POF4-217)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-217 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jjsc39_20190501$ /
G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000613614500002},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/890441},
}