TY  - JOUR
AU  - Žydelis, R.
AU  - Weihermüller, L.
AU  - Herbst, Michael
TI  - Future climate change will accelerate maize phenological development and increase yield in the Nemoral climate
JO  - The science of the total environment
VL  - 784
SN  - 0048-9697
CY  - Amsterdam [u.a.]
PB  - Elsevier Science
M1  - FZJ-2021-01877
SP  - 147175 -
PY  - 2021
AB  - Climate change will bring warmer and wetter conditions and more frequent extreme events in the Nemoral climate zone. These changes are expected to affect maize growth and yields. In this study, we applied the AgroC model to assess climate change impact on changes in growing environmental conditions, growing season length, yield and potential yield losses due to multiple abiotic stresses. The model was calibrated and validated using data from dedicated field experiments conducted in Lithuania during four meteorologically contrasting years (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019). We simulated the climate impacts on rainfed maize for long-term future climate conditions from 2020 to 2100 under the RCP2.6 (low), RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (high) emission scenarios. As a result, we found that air temperature, sum of growing degree days and amount of precipitation during the growing season of maize will increase, especially under medium and higher emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), with significantly positive effect on yields. The simulation results showed that average maize grain yield will increase under RCP2.6 by 69 kg ha−1 per decade, under RCP4.5 by 197 kg ha−1 per decade and under RCP8.5 by 304 kg ha−1 per decade. The future potential maize yield reveals a progressive increase with a surplus of +10.2% under RCP4.5 and +14.4% under RCP8.5, while under RCP2.6 the increase of potential yield during the same period will be statistically not significant. The yield gap under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 will fluctuate within a rather narrow range and under RCP8.5, it will decrease
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - 33895511
UR  - <Go to ISI:>//WOS:000657589200003
DO  - DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147175
UR  - https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/892017
ER  -