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@ARTICLE{ydelis:892017,
      author       = {Žydelis, R. and Weihermüller, L. and Herbst, Michael},
      title        = {{F}uture climate change will accelerate maize phenological
                      development and increase yield in the {N}emoral climate},
      journal      = {The science of the total environment},
      volume       = {784},
      issn         = {0048-9697},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier Science},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-01877},
      pages        = {147175 -},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {Climate change will bring warmer and wetter conditions and
                      more frequent extreme events in the Nemoral climate zone.
                      These changes are expected to affect maize growth and
                      yields. In this study, we applied the AgroC model to assess
                      climate change impact on changes in growing environmental
                      conditions, growing season length, yield and potential yield
                      losses due to multiple abiotic stresses. The model was
                      calibrated and validated using data from dedicated field
                      experiments conducted in Lithuania during four
                      meteorologically contrasting years (2015, 2016, 2017 and
                      2019). We simulated the climate impacts on rainfed maize for
                      long-term future climate conditions from 2020 to 2100 under
                      the RCP2.6 (low), RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (high) emission
                      scenarios. As a result, we found that air temperature, sum
                      of growing degree days and amount of precipitation during
                      the growing season of maize will increase, especially under
                      medium and higher emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),
                      with significantly positive effect on yields. The simulation
                      results showed that average maize grain yield will increase
                      under RCP2.6 by 69 kg ha−1 per decade, under RCP4.5 by 197
                      kg ha−1 per decade and under RCP8.5 by 304 kg ha−1 per
                      decade. The future potential maize yield reveals a
                      progressive increase with a surplus of $+10.2\%$ under
                      RCP4.5 and $+14.4\%$ under RCP8.5, while under RCP2.6 the
                      increase of potential yield during the same period will be
                      statistically not significant. The yield gap under RCP2.6
                      and RCP4.5 will fluctuate within a rather narrow range and
                      under RCP8.5, it will decrease},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {217 - Für eine nachhaltige Bio-Ökonomie – von
                      Ressourcen zu Produkten (POF4-217) / 2173 -
                      Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-217 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {33895511},
      UT           = {WOS:000657589200003},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147175},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/892017},
}