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@ARTICLE{Scharnagl:8985,
      author       = {Scharnagl, B. and Vrugt, J. A. and Vereecken, H. and
                      Herbst, M.},
      title        = {{I}nformation content of incubation experiments for inverse
                      estimation of pools in the {R}othamsted carbon model: a
                      {B}ayesian perspective},
      journal      = {Biogeosciences},
      volume       = {7},
      issn         = {1726-4170},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Copernicus},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-8985},
      pages        = {763 - 776},
      year         = {2010},
      note         = {We thank Sirgit Kummer and Wolfgang Tappe for providing the
                      experimental data used to estimate the precision of
                      mineralization rate measurements. The first, third and
                      fourth author gratefully acknowledge financial support by
                      the TERENO project and by the SFB/TR 32 "Pattern in
                      Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Systems: Monitoring, Modeling,
                      and Data Assimilation" funded by the Deutsche
                      Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). The work of the second author
                      was sponsored by a J. Robert Oppenheimer Fellowship from the
                      LANL Postdoctoral Program. We thank the two anonymous
                      referees for their insightful comments on the discussion
                      paper.},
      abstract     = {A major drawback of current soil organic carbon (SOC)
                      models is that their conceptually defined pools do not
                      necessarily correspond to measurable SOC fractions in real
                      practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously
                      evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive
                      accurate initial states of the individual carbon pools. In
                      this study, we tested the feasibility of inverse modelling
                      for estimating pools in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC)
                      using mineralization rates observed during incubation
                      experiments. This inverse approach may provide an
                      alternative to existing SOC fractionation methods. To
                      illustrate our approach, we used a time series of
                      synthetically generated mineralization rates using the ROTHC
                      model. We adopted a Bayesian approach using the recently
                      developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM)
                      algorithm to infer probability density functions of the
                      various carbon pools at the start of incubation. The
                      Kullback-Leibler divergence was used to quantify the
                      information content of the mineralization rate data. Our
                      results indicate that measured mineralization rates
                      generally provided sufficient information to reliably
                      estimate all carbon pools in the ROTHC model. The incubation
                      time necessary to appropriately constrain all pools was
                      about 900 days. The use of prior information on microbial
                      biomass carbon significantly reduced the uncertainty of the
                      initial carbon pools, decreasing the required incubation
                      time to about 600 days. Simultaneous estimation of initial
                      carbon pools and decomposition rate constants significantly
                      increased the uncertainty of the carbon pools. This effect
                      was most pronounced for the intermediate and slow pools.
                      Altogether, our results demonstrate that it is particularly
                      difficult to derive reasonable estimates of the humified
                      organic matter pool and the inert organic matter pool from
                      inverse modelling of mineralization rates observed during
                      incubation experiments.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {ICG-4 / JARA-ENERGY},
      ddc          = {570},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB793 / $I:(DE-82)080011_20140620$},
      pnm          = {Terrestrische Umwelt},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK407},
      shelfmark    = {Ecology / Geosciences, Multidisciplinary},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000274993900023},
      doi          = {10.5194/bg-7-763-2010},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/8985},
}