000902894 001__ 902894 000902894 005__ 20240708132940.0 000902894 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.trd.2021.103110 000902894 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1361-9209 000902894 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1879-2340 000902894 0247_ $$2Handle$$a2128/29217 000902894 0247_ $$2altmetric$$aaltmetric:117972297 000902894 0247_ $$2WOS$$aWOS:000751664500006 000902894 037__ $$aFZJ-2021-04649 000902894 082__ $$a380 000902894 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129852$$aGrube, Thomas$$b0$$eCorresponding author 000902894 245__ $$aPassenger car cost development through 2050 000902894 260__ $$aAmsterdam [u.a.]$$bElsevier Science$$c2021 000902894 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle 000902894 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOutput Types/Journal article 000902894 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)16$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aJournal Article$$bjournal$$mjournal$$s1638254819_19739 000902894 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aARTICLE 000902894 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aJOURNAL_ARTICLE 000902894 3367_ $$00$$2EndNote$$aJournal Article 000902894 520__ $$aFor passenger cars, various powertrains compete in terms of reducing environmentally-harmful emissions, smooth integration into future energy systems and economic performance. Developing a sound long-term projection of the total cost of ownership (TCO), however, remains challenging. Highlights of our present assessment, include a detailed, component-based manufacturing and operating cost analysis, as well as simulation-based component scaling and fuel consumption analysis. We apply this methodology to eight passenger car concepts based on batteries, fuel cells and combustion engines, spanning four passenger car segments and five different market development scenarios through 2050. With respect to the TCO, our analysis reveals that fully-electric powertrains utilizing batteries (BEVs) and fuel cells (FCEVs) offer the lowest-cost solutions. FCEVs exhibit small but robust benefits compared to BEVs. BEVs will undergo the earliest break-even point with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), already before 2030. Different market development scenarios would not significantly affect the long-term results. 000902894 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1111$$a1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111)$$cPOF4-111$$fPOF IV$$x0 000902894 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1112$$a1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways (POF4-111)$$cPOF4-111$$fPOF IV$$x1 000902894 588__ $$aDataset connected to CrossRef, Journals: juser.fz-juelich.de 000902894 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)176827$$aKraus, Stefan$$b1 000902894 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)180396$$aReul, Julian$$b2 000902894 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129928$$aStolten, Detlef$$b3 000902894 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2019964-8$$a10.1016/j.trd.2021.103110$$gVol. 101, p. 103110 -$$p103110 -$$tTransportation research / D$$v101$$x1361-9209$$y2021 000902894 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/902894/files/_paper%20CostStudy%20211102_v14_final_Main.pdf$$yPublished on 2021-11-19. Available in OpenAccess from 2023-11-19. 000902894 909CO $$ooai:juser.fz-juelich.de:902894$$pdnbdelivery$$pdriver$$pVDB$$popen_access$$popenaire 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)129852$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b0$$kFZJ 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)176827$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b1$$kFZJ 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)36225-6$$6P:(DE-Juel1)176827$$aRWTH Aachen$$b1$$kRWTH 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)180396$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b2$$kFZJ 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)36225-6$$6P:(DE-Juel1)180396$$aRWTH Aachen$$b2$$kRWTH 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)129928$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b3$$kFZJ 000902894 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)36225-6$$6P:(DE-Juel1)129928$$aRWTH Aachen$$b3$$kRWTH 000902894 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF4-111$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF4-110$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF4-100$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF4$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$9G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1111$$aDE-HGF$$bForschungsbereich Energie$$lEnergiesystemdesign (ESD)$$vEnergiesystemtransformation$$x0 000902894 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF4-111$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF4-110$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF4-100$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF4$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$9G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1112$$aDE-HGF$$bForschungsbereich Energie$$lEnergiesystemdesign (ESD)$$vEnergiesystemtransformation$$x1 000902894 9141_ $$y2021 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0150$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bWeb of Science Core Collection$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0300$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bMedline$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0130$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bSocial Sciences Citation Index$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0600$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bEbsco Academic Search$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0LIC:(DE-HGF)CCBYNCND4$$2HGFVOC$$aCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0530$$2StatID$$aEmbargoed OpenAccess 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0100$$2StatID$$aJCR$$bTRANSPORT RES D-TR E : 2019$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1180$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Social and Behavioral Sciences$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0113$$2StatID$$aWoS$$bScience Citation Index Expanded$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)9900$$2StatID$$aIF < 5$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0030$$2StatID$$aPeer Review$$bASC$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1160$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - Engineering, Computing and Technology$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0160$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bEssential Science Indicators$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0200$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bSCOPUS$$d2021-01-30 000902894 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0199$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bClarivate Analytics Master Journal List$$d2021-01-30 000902894 920__ $$lyes 000902894 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-3-20101013$$kIEK-3$$lTechnoökonomische Systemanalyse$$x0 000902894 9801_ $$aFullTexts 000902894 980__ $$ajournal 000902894 980__ $$aVDB 000902894 980__ $$aUNRESTRICTED 000902894 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-3-20101013 000902894 981__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)ICE-2-20101013