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@ARTICLE{Grube:902894,
      author       = {Grube, Thomas and Kraus, Stefan and Reul, Julian and
                      Stolten, Detlef},
      title        = {{P}assenger car cost development through 2050},
      journal      = {Transportation research / D},
      volume       = {101},
      issn         = {1361-9209},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier Science},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-04649},
      pages        = {103110 -},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {For passenger cars, various powertrains compete in terms of
                      reducing environmentally-harmful emissions, smooth
                      integration into future energy systems and economic
                      performance. Developing a sound long-term projection of the
                      total cost of ownership (TCO), however, remains challenging.
                      Highlights of our present assessment, include a detailed,
                      component-based manufacturing and operating cost analysis,
                      as well as simulation-based component scaling and fuel
                      consumption analysis. We apply this methodology to eight
                      passenger car concepts based on batteries, fuel cells and
                      combustion engines, spanning four passenger car segments and
                      five different market development scenarios through 2050.
                      With respect to the TCO, our analysis reveals that
                      fully-electric powertrains utilizing batteries (BEVs) and
                      fuel cells (FCEVs) offer the lowest-cost solutions. FCEVs
                      exhibit small but robust benefits compared to BEVs. BEVs
                      will undergo the earliest break-even point with internal
                      combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), already before 2030.
                      Different market development scenarios would not
                      significantly affect the long-term results.},
      cin          = {IEK-3},
      ddc          = {380},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-3-20101013},
      pnm          = {1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111)
                      / 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways
                      (POF4-111)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1111 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1112},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000751664500006},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.trd.2021.103110},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/902894},
}