TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bracher, Johannes
AU  - Wolffram, Daniel
AU  - Deuschel, Jannik
AU  - Görgen, Konstantin
AU  - Ketterer, Jakob L.
AU  - Ullrich, Alexander
AU  - Abbott, Sam
AU  - Barbarossa, Maria V.
AU  - Bertsimas, Dimitris
AU  - Bhatia, Sangeeta
AU  - Bodych, Marcin
AU  - Bosse, Nikos I.
AU  - Burgard, Jan Pablo
AU  - Castro, Lauren
AU  - Fairchild, Geoffrey
AU  - Fiedler, Jochen
AU  - Fuhrmann, Jan
AU  - Funk, Sebastian
AU  - Gambin, Anna
AU  - Gogolewski, Krzysztof
AU  - Heyder, Stefan
AU  - Hotz, Thomas
AU  - Kheifetz, Yuri
AU  - Kirsten, Holger
AU  - Krueger, Tyll
AU  - Krymova, Ekaterina
AU  - Leithäuser, Neele
AU  - Li, Michael L.
AU  - Meinke, Jan H.
AU  - Miasojedow, Błażej
AU  - Michaud, Isaac J.
AU  - Mohring, Jan
AU  - Nouvellet, Pierre
AU  - Nowosielski, Jedrzej M.
AU  - Ozanski, Tomasz
AU  - Radwan, Maciej
AU  - Rakowski, Franciszek
AU  - Scholz, Markus
AU  - Soni, Saksham
AU  - Srivastava, Ajitesh
AU  - Gneiting, Tilmann
AU  - Schienle, Melanie
TI  - National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
JO  - Communications medicine
VL  - 2
IS  - 1
SN  - 2730-664X
CY  - [London]
PB  - Springer Nature
M1  - FZJ-2022-04764
SP  - 136
PY  - 2022
AB  - We compare forecasts of weekly case and death numbers for COVID-19 in Germany and Poland based on 15 different modelling approaches. These cover the period from January to April 2021 and address numbers of cases and deaths one and two weeks into the future, along with the respective uncertainties. We find that combining different forecasts into one forecast can enable better predictions. However, case numbers over longer periods were challenging to predict. Additional data sources, such as information about different versions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the population, might improve forecasts in the future.
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - 36352249
UR  - <Go to ISI:>//WOS:001088306700001
DO  - DOI:10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8
UR  - https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/911502
ER  -