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@ARTICLE{Yi:916862,
author = {Yi, Xiuping and Zou, Ling and Niu, Zigeng and Jiang,
Daoyang and Cao, Qian},
title = {{M}ulti-{M}odel {E}nsemble {P}rojections of {W}inter
{E}xtreme {T}emperature {E}vents on the {C}hinese
{M}ainland},
journal = {International journal of environmental research and public
health},
volume = {19},
number = {10},
issn = {1661-7827},
address = {Basel},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
reportid = {FZJ-2023-00154},
pages = {5902 -},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of
26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the
extreme cli-mate indices defined by the Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter
extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response in
the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic
pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways.
The results showed that the temperature in winter increased
overall, with the highest temperature in-creases of 0.31
℃/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 ℃/10a
(SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30
℃/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 ℃/10a (SSP585). Warm-related
extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell
duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas
cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell
duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days
showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the
maximum temperature increased by more than 2 ℃/10a
(SSP245) and 0.4 ℃/10a (SSP585), except in South China,
and the minimum temperature increased faster in
Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on
the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the
frequency and inten-sity of warm winters in the latter half
of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of
the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter
frequency in most regions will be re-duced to below $60\%,$
but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than $80\%.$
Population expo-sures all showed a downward trend, mainly
due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline
of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,
respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is
controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure
risk in warm winters can be decreased by $25.87\%.$ This
study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chi-nese
mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that
stricter emission reduction poli-cies can effectively
decrease the population exposure to warm winters.},
cin = {JSC},
ddc = {610},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
pnm = {5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs
(SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
pubmed = {35627439},
UT = {WOS:000802530100001},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph19105902},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/916862},
}