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@ARTICLE{Yi:916862,
      author       = {Yi, Xiuping and Zou, Ling and Niu, Zigeng and Jiang,
                      Daoyang and Cao, Qian},
      title        = {{M}ulti-{M}odel {E}nsemble {P}rojections of {W}inter
                      {E}xtreme {T}emperature {E}vents on the {C}hinese
                      {M}ainland},
      journal      = {International journal of environmental research and public
                      health},
      volume       = {19},
      number       = {10},
      issn         = {1661-7827},
      address      = {Basel},
      publisher    = {MDPI AG},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2023-00154},
      pages        = {5902 -},
      year         = {2022},
      abstract     = {Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of
                      26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model
                      Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the
                      extreme cli-mate indices defined by the Expert Team on
                      Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter
                      extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response in
                      the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic
                      pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways.
                      The results showed that the temperature in winter increased
                      overall, with the highest temperature in-creases of 0.31
                      ℃/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 ℃/10a
                      (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30
                      ℃/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 ℃/10a (SSP585). Warm-related
                      extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell
                      duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas
                      cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell
                      duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days
                      showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the
                      maximum temperature increased by more than 2 ℃/10a
                      (SSP245) and 0.4 ℃/10a (SSP585), except in South China,
                      and the minimum temperature increased faster in
                      Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on
                      the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the
                      frequency and inten-sity of warm winters in the latter half
                      of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of
                      the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter
                      frequency in most regions will be re-duced to below $60\%,$
                      but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than $80\%.$
                      Population expo-sures all showed a downward trend, mainly
                      due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline
                      of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,
                      respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is
                      controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure
                      risk in warm winters can be decreased by $25.87\%.$ This
                      study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chi-nese
                      mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that
                      stricter emission reduction poli-cies can effectively
                      decrease the population exposure to warm winters.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {610},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs
                      (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {35627439},
      UT           = {WOS:000802530100001},
      doi          = {10.3390/ijerph19105902},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/916862},
}