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037 _ _ |a FZJ-2023-00411
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100 1 _ |a Yessimbet, Kamilya
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245 _ _ |a Pathways of Influence Between Northern Hemisphere Blocking and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability
260 _ _ |a Hoboken, NJ
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|b Wiley
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520 _ _ |a We apply a causal inference-based framework to test and quantify previously suggested causalrelationships between Northern Hemisphere blocking, upward wave-activity fluxes and stratospheric polarvortex (SPV) variability using reanalysis data. We show that the influence of blocking on the polar vortex isentirely mediated by upward wave-activity fluxes, as the classical view would suggest. However, the causalpathway is not completely straightforward. In contrast to the vortex-weakening effect of European blocking,the vortex-strengthening effect of west Pacific blocking on lower stratospheric wave-activity fluxes is onlypartially mediated by upper tropospheric wave-activity fluxes. In addition, only two-thirds of the effectof upper tropospheric wave-activity fluxes on polar vortex variability is mediated by lower stratosphericwave-activity fluxes. We also show that sudden stratospheric warmings are not entirely explainable in terms ofupward wave-activity fluxes. These findings help clarify the pathways of influence between blocking and SPVvariability.
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700 1 _ |a Shepherd, Theodore G.
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700 1 _ |a Ossó, Albert C.
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700 1 _ |a Steiner, Andrea K.
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773 _ _ |a 10.1029/2022GL100895
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856 4 _ |u https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/917179/files/Yessimbet.pdf
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