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| Hauptseite > Publikationsdatenbank > Experimental seasonal monitoring and forecasting of total subsurface water storage over Germany |
| Hauptseite > Publikationsdatenbank > Experimental seasonal monitoring and forecasting of total subsurface water storage over Germany |
| Poster (After Call) | FZJ-2025-01964 |
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2025
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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.34734/FZJ-2025-01964
Abstract: Impacts of regional climate change have become apparent during recent summer droughts that affected Germany since 2018. In this context, the need has been increasing for relevant and usable information on the status and the evolution of subsurface water resources by the interested public and decision makers across sectors, such as agriculture and water resources. Pertaining to this need, we have developed and operate a hydrological monitoring and forecasting system, in which the integrated hydrological model ParFlow with its internal land surface module CLM (Common Land Model) simulates on a daily basis the terrestrial part of the water cycle down to a depth of 60m for Germany and beyond at about 0.6km horizontal resolution. The atmospheric driver for the daily ParFlow 9-day forecasts is the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) deterministic HRES forecast. To account for the uncertainty of the weather forecast, and especially precipitation, a 50-member ensemble driven by the ECMWF ENS forecast is calculated every second day. In addition, at the beginning of each meteorological season, we add a 7-month 50-member forecast using ECMWF SEAS atmospheric forcing. Each simulation is computed on a single JUWELS Booster node, taking advantage of the highly efficient GPU capability of ParFlow. To provide easily accessible information on the current state, the past and the potential future evolution, we created the “FZJ experimental Water Resources Bulletin for Germany” (FZJ eWRB) (https://www.adapter-projekt.de/bulletin/index_en.html). The FZJ eWRB always follows a recurring content and structure. Currently, it features the monthly total subsurface climatological storage anomaly from the surface to 60m subsurface depth in mm water column, including the spatial distribution of the past meteorological season. The time series of the monthly evolution since 2011 for Germany is combined with the 7-month forecasts initialised at the beginning of each meteorological season, including uncertainty information from 50 ensemble members. This helps to evaluate, e.g., the severity of a drought condition in a climatological context. The last part of the bulletin presents storage anomaly information for each NUTS3 administrative region for the same forecasting period. While solely based on simulation results, the FZJ experimental Water Resources Bulletin provides the first German wide consistent picture of water resources anomalies up to the seasonal timescale, and at a spatial resolution that is relevant for all water sectors.
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