Abstract

FZJ-2025-03543

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Validation Framework for ETHOS.MIDAS

Ghaddar, T. (Corresponding author)FZJ*RWTH* ; Pflugradt, N.FZJ* ; Weinand, J.FZJ* ; Linssen, J.FZJ*

2025

Abstract: Transport is one of Europe's largest emitting sectors, yet national decarbonization targets often ignore regional implementation constraints. While disaggregated NUTS 3 transport pathways may appear mathematically sound, their real-world feasibility remains untested. This work presents a validation framework for assessing regional model outputs - such as baseline and residual emissions, fleet electrification, and model shifts - against local infrastructure, turnover rates, and behavioural patterns. Applied across NUTS 3 EU regions, the analysis reveals where pathways align with local realities, where data is missing, and where ambition outpaces feasibility. Results emphasize the need for transparent transport datasets to support credible regional decarbonization strategies

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülicher Systemanalyse (ICE-2)

Research Program(s):

1. 1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)
2. 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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