%0 Journal Article
%A Frey, Ulrich Joachim
%A Cao, Karl-Kiên
%A Sasanpour, Shima
%A Buschmann, Jan
%A Breuer, Thomas
%T The benefits of exploring a large scenario space for future energy systems
%J Nature Communications
%V -
%@ 2041-1723
%C [London]
%I Springer Nature
%M FZJ-2026-00066
%P -
%D 2025
%Z Early Access; Volume etc. stehen daher noch nicht fest; Open Access Artikel
%X Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios. Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy advice. We present an approach that enables the multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a wide range of input parameters and method choices. The resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of indicators on affordability, supply-security and sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore, we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy systems analyses – well over 100 scenarios are needed. Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while conserving natural resources.
%F PUB:(DE-HGF)16
%9 Journal Article
%R 10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9
%U https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1050254