TY  - JOUR
AU  - Frey, Ulrich Joachim
AU  - Cao, Karl-Kiên
AU  - Sasanpour, Shima
AU  - Buschmann, Jan
AU  - Breuer, Thomas
TI  - The benefits of exploring a large scenario space for future energy systems
JO  - Nature Communications
VL  - -
SN  - 2041-1723
CY  - [London]
PB  - Springer Nature
M1  - FZJ-2026-00066
SP  - -
PY  - 2025
N1  - Early Access; Volume etc. stehen daher noch nicht fest; Open Access Artikel
AB  - Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios. Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy advice. We present an approach that enables the multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a wide range of input parameters and method choices. The resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of indicators on affordability, supply-security and sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore, we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy systems analyses – well over 100 scenarios are needed. Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while conserving natural resources.
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
DO  - DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9
UR  - https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1050254
ER  -