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@ARTICLE{Frey:1050254,
      author       = {Frey, Ulrich Joachim and Cao, Karl-Kiên and Sasanpour,
                      Shima and Buschmann, Jan and Breuer, Thomas},
      title        = {{T}he benefits of exploring a large scenario space for
                      future energy systems},
      journal      = {Nature Communications},
      volume       = {-},
      issn         = {2041-1723},
      address      = {[London]},
      publisher    = {Springer Nature},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2026-00066},
      pages        = {-},
      year         = {2025},
      note         = {Early Access; Volume etc. stehen daher noch nicht fest;
                      Open Access Artikel},
      abstract     = {Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches
                      rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios.
                      Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and
                      assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy
                      advice. We present an approach that enables the
                      multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and
                      demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a
                      wide range of input parameters and method choices. The
                      resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of
                      indicators on affordability, supply-security and
                      sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results
                      stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore,
                      we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy
                      systems analyses – well over 100 scenarios are needed.
                      Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited
                      scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future
                      energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while
                      conserving natural resources.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {500},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {5112 - Cross-Domain Algorithms, Tools, Methods Labs (ATMLs)
                      and Research Groups (POF4-511) / Verbundvorhaben: UNSEEN '
                      Bewertung der Unsicherheiten in linear optimierenden
                      Energiesystem-Modellen unter Zuhilfenahme Neuronaler Netze,
                      Teilvorhaben: Entwicklung einer integrierten HPC-Workflow
                      Umgebung zur Kopplung von Optimierungsmethoden mit Methode
                      (03EI1004F) / ATMLAO - ATML Application Optimization and
                      User Service Tools (ATMLAO)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5112 / G:(BMWi)03EI1004F /
                      G:(DE-Juel-1)ATMLAO},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1050254},
}