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| Book | FZJ-2026-02456 |
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2026
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag
Jülich
ISBN: 978-3-95806-917-6
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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.34734/FZJ-2026-02456
Abstract: The European Union acknowledges climate change as an existential threat and is pursuing a growth strategy through the European Green Deal that envisions the development of a resource-efficient and competitive economy while at the same time adhering to climate protection measures [1, 2]. These measures include Europe achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As an interim target, net greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels [3]. Achieving these goals will require a holistic transformation of the European energy system. Against this background, the question arises as to which pathways and strategies are available to achieve these objectives in Europe and what role Germany will play given its central location. For this study, a scenario for the transformation of the European energy system has been developed, which is aligned with the reduction targets set for Europe. The analyses are supplemented by further detailed studies in order to be able to map aspects such as the development of European hydrogen infrastructures and their robustness under various conditions. The analyses are carried out using the ETHOS (Energy Transformation Pathway Optimization Suite) model family, which was developed by the Jülich Systems Analysis institute (ICE-2) at Forschungszentrum Jülich [4]. This allows energy systems to be mapped on different scales, taking into account the interactions between the individual sectors. The model family includes, among others, models for the detailed mapping of wind power and photovoltaic expansion and generation potentials and for the mapping of global energy markets and possible energy imports and exports. In addition, integrated infrastructure analyses can be carried out while taking all relevant energy carriers into account. The scenarios presented here show cost-optimized strategies for achieving the transformation of the European energy system. At the core of the analyses carried out here is the ETHOS.Europe energy system model, which maps the European energy supply with the infrastructures for electricity, natural gas and hydrogen and enables cost-optimal transformation strategies for Europe to be calculated with a high spatial resolution. While adhering to exogenously set framework conditions, which include greenhouse gas reduction targets, for example, the model minimizes the transformation costs for the European energy supply system. In doing so, the specified energy demand must be met every hour. The analyses show that greenhouse gas neutrality can only be achieved through a fundamental restructuring of the European energy supply. From a technical and economic point of view, this restructuring is feasible, but it requires all European players to act collectively.
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