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| Home > Publications database > Imagining Infrastructure Transformation: Participatory Scenario Development for Unpacking Alternative Futures |
| Home > Publications database > Imagining Infrastructure Transformation: Participatory Scenario Development for Unpacking Alternative Futures |
| Abstract | FZJ-2026-04454 |
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2026
Abstract: The way in which transformation may unfold can be influenced by alternative ideas about possiblefutures. Depending on the aspects that alternative futures should capture, unpacking them can bechallenging. These futures can range from general ideas of what the world might look like to detailedalternatives incorporating a variety of factors and variables, as seen in climate change models.Therefore, we ask: how can we approach unpacking alternative futures in a way that includesessential factors yet minimizes unnecessary ones? In this context, the following work explores anextension to the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method, which uses an algorithm incorporating variousfactors to examine different scenarios, or in this case, futures. However, since this algorithm rendersthe method relatively deterministic, incorporating an element of playfulness and participation couldenable the exploration of diverse and less deterministic alternative futures that align with theperspectives of those involved in creating them. This objective is achieved by creating a serious gameapplication that can be used for CIB models, which has been tested and built with stakeholders inthree case studies on the issue of infrastructure transformation in the context of future waterconflicts. Participants, such as stakeholders, can use the game to explore scenarios that the algorithmwould not typically produce, particularly those that are inconsistent, and through interaction orpossible modification of the factors, may find solutions that suit everyone. Additionally, as theserious game uses the same algorithm, the scenarios continue to reference the embedded factorsand maintain traceability.
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