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@ARTICLE{Herrmann:811842,
      author       = {Herrmann, Frank and Kunkel, Ralf and Ostermann, Ulrich and
                      Vereecken, Harry and Wendland, Frank},
      title        = {{P}rojected impact of climate change on irrigation needs
                      and groundwater resources in the metropolitan area of
                      {H}amburg ({G}ermany)},
      journal      = {Environmental earth sciences},
      volume       = {75},
      number       = {14},
      issn         = {1866-6280},
      address      = {Berlin},
      publisher    = {Springer},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2016-04187},
      pages        = {1104},
      year         = {2016},
      abstract     = {Irrigated agriculture is an important economic factor in
                      the rural parts of the metropolitan area of Hamburg. It is
                      commonly expected that climate change will reduce the
                      groundwater quantities available for field irrigation.
                      Against this background, the ratio of irrigation need and
                      groundwater recharge (IGR-ratio) is suggested as an
                      indicator to assess climate change impacts on the
                      vulnerability of groundwater resources towards
                      overexploitation by agricultural irrigation. The IGR-ratio
                      has been assessed based on the distributed water balance
                      model mGROWA, i.e. under consideration of the simulated
                      groundwater recharge levels and the field crop-specific
                      irrigation need of the commonly cultivated field crops. The
                      spatial IGR-ratio distribution determined for the observed
                      reference period 1971–2000 has shown that the delineated
                      vulnerable areas coincide with the regions for which high
                      irrigation quantities have been documented at present.
                      Additionally, the IGR-ratio depicts the areas in which
                      irrigation is currently still negligible, but in which the
                      introduction of irrigation into agricultural practice would
                      lead to an immediate overexploitation of the sustainably
                      available groundwater budget. The possible impact of future
                      climate on IGR-ratios was determined by using a model chain
                      of mGROWA and the regional climate models REMO and
                      WETTREG2010. The related ensemble simulations did not
                      provide a uniform tendency of possible future IGR-ratio
                      changes. Whereas the mGROWA–WETTREG2010 realisations
                      projected a very high increase in the IGR-ratios, the
                      mGROWA–REMO realisations did not show a pronounced trend
                      of increasing IGR-ratios. Therefore, considerable
                      uncertainties remain regarding the future bandwidth of
                      IGR-ratio changes.},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {255 - Terrestrial Systems: From Observation to Prediction
                      (POF3-255)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-255},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000380141500035},
      doi          = {10.1007/s12665-016-5904-y},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/811842},
}