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@ARTICLE{Wohland:840344,
author = {Wohland, Jan and Reyers, Mark and Weber, Juliane and
Witthaut, Dirk},
title = {{M}ore homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate
change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of
electricity in {E}urope},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
volume = {8},
number = {4},
issn = {2190-4987},
address = {Göttingen},
publisher = {Copernicus Publ.},
reportid = {FZJ-2017-07886},
pages = {1047 - 1060},
year = {2017},
abstract = {Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast
decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable
electricity generation is determined by the weather and is
hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation
of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity
system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from
EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we
find a robust but modest increase (up to $7 \%)$ of backup
energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The
absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent
of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical
effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a
highly interconnected European system. The increase is
rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe
resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls.
Individual country contributions to European generation
shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr−1, reflecting an
increase of up to $4 \%.$ Our results are strengthened by
comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach
based on circulation weather types.},
cin = {IEK-STE / JARA-HPC},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
pnm = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) /
VH-NG-1025 - Helmholtz Young Investigators Group
"Efficiency, Emergence and Economics of future supply
networks" $(VH-NG-1025_20112014)$ / HITEC - Helmholtz
Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and Climate
Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406) / High-Resolution Climate
Scenarios for Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling
$(jiek73_20160501)$},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153 / $G:(HGF)VH-NG-1025_20112014$ /
G:(DE-Juel1)HITEC-20170406 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jiek73_20160501$},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000416491100001},
doi = {10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/840344},
}