Journal Article

FZJ-2017-07886

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe

Wohland, J. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Reyers, M.Extern* ; Weber, J.FZJ* ; Witthaut, D.FZJ*

2017
Copernicus Publ. Göttingen

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/16251  doi:10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017

Abstract: Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr−1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)
2. JARA - HPC (JARA-HPC)

Research Program(s):

1. 153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) (POF3-153)
2. VH-NG-1025 - Helmholtz Young Investigators Group "Efficiency, Emergence and Economics of future supply networks" (VH-NG-1025_20112014) (VH-NG-1025_20112014)
3. HITEC - Helmholtz Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and Climate Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406) (HITEC-20170406)
4. High-Resolution Climate Scenarios for Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling (jiek73_20160501) (jiek73_20160501)

Appears in the scientific report 2017

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Database coverage:
; ; ; Current Contents - Physical, Chemical and Earth Sciences ; DOAJ Seal ; Ebsco Academic Search ; IF < 5 ; JCR ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Thomson Reuters Master Journal List ; Web of Science Core Collection

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