Journal Article

FZJ-2019-02735

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Socio-technical scenarios for energy-intensive industries: The future of steel production in Germany

Vögele, S. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Rübbelke, D. ; Govorukha, K. ; Grajewski, M.

2020
Springer Science + Business Media B.V Dordrecht [u.a.]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02366-0

Abstract: Relocating energy-intensive industries to another country may help to meet national greenhouse gas reduction targets. However, this can lead to rising global emissions if production in the country that receives the shifted industries is associated with higher specific emissions (carbon leakage). The relocation of industries and thus the possible emergence of carbon leakage depends largely on cost advantages in the country of destination and the level of transport costs. In this study, we consider the example of relocations in the iron and steel industries of China and Germany in order to ascertain effects on CO2-emissions. We develop different scenarios for 2030 using a multilevel cross-impactbalance (CIB) approach and analyse these scenarios in a technology-based cost model. Since all scenarios show high specific cost for reducing global CO2-emissions by preferring crude steel produced in Germany to steel from China, we conclude that avoiding carbon leakage is not necessarily a cost-efficient measure for reducing global CO2-emissions.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)

Research Program(s):

1. 153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) (POF3-153)

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Database coverage:
; BIOSIS Previews ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Agriculture, Biology and Environmental Sciences ; Current Contents - Physical, Chemical and Earth Sciences ; Ebsco Academic Search ; IF < 5 ; JCR ; Nationallizenz ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection

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