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@ARTICLE{Tao:863606,
      author       = {Tao, Mengchu and Konopka, Paul and Ploeger, Felix and Yan,
                      Xiaolu and Wright, Jonathon S. and Diallo, Mohamadou and
                      Fueglistaler, Stephan and Riese, Martin},
      title        = {{M}ultitimescale variations in modeled stratospheric water
                      vapor derived from three modern reanalysis products},
      journal      = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
      volume       = {19},
      number       = {9},
      issn         = {1680-7324},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2019-03618},
      pages        = {6509 - 6534},
      year         = {2019},
      abstract     = {Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays important roles in
                      the radiation budget and ozone chemistry and is a valuable
                      tracer for understanding stratospheric transport.
                      Meteorological reanalyses provide variables necessary for
                      simulating this transport; however, even recent reanalyses
                      are subject to substantial uncertainties, especially in the
                      stratosphere. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the
                      consistency among SWV distributions simulated using
                      different input reanalysis products. In this study, we
                      evaluate the representation of SWV and its variations on
                      multiple timescales using simulations over the period
                      1980–2013. Our simulations are based on the Chemical
                      Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by
                      horizontal winds and diabatic heating rates from three
                      recent reanalyses: ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA-2. We
                      present an intercomparison among these model results and
                      observationally based estimates using a multiple linear
                      regression method to study the annual cycle (AC), the
                      quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and longer-term
                      variability in monthly zonal-mean H2O mixing ratios forced
                      by variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
                      and the volcanic aerosol burden. We find reasonable
                      consistency among simulations of the distribution and
                      variability in SWV with respect to the AC and QBO. However,
                      the amplitudes of both signals are systematically weaker in
                      the lower and middle stratosphere when CLaMS is driven by
                      MERRA-2 than when it is driven by ERA-Interim or JRA-55.
                      This difference is primarily attributable to relatively slow
                      tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere in simulations
                      based on MERRA-2. Two possible contributors to the slow
                      tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere are suggested
                      to be the large long-wave cloud radiative effect and the
                      unique assimilation process in MERRA-2. The impacts of ENSO
                      and volcanic aerosol on H2O entry variability are
                      qualitatively consistent among the three simulations despite
                      differences of $50 \%–100 \%$ in the magnitudes.
                      Trends show larger discrepancies among the three
                      simulations. CLaMS driven by ERA-Interim produces a neutral
                      to slightly positive trend in H2O entry values over
                      1980–2013 (+0.01 ppmv decade$^{−1}$), while both
                      CLaMS driven by JRA-55 and CLaMS driven by MERRA-2 produce
                      negative trends but with significantly different magnitudes
                      (−0.22 and −0.08 ppmv decade$^{−1}$,
                      respectively).},
      cin          = {IEK-7},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-7-20101013},
      pnm          = {244 - Composition and dynamics of the upper troposphere and
                      middle atmosphere (POF3-244)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-244},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000468193700006},
      doi          = {10.5194/acp-19-6509-2019},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/863606},
}