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@ARTICLE{Vogel:889265,
      author       = {Vogel, Annika and Ungermann, Jörn and Elbern, Hendrik},
      title        = {{A}nalyzing highly uncertain source regions in the
                      {E}x-{UTLS} and their effects on small-scale atmospheric
                      composition using probabilistic retroplume calculations},
      journal      = {Atmospheric environment},
      volume       = {220},
      issn         = {1352-2310},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier Science},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-00170},
      pages        = {117063 -},
      year         = {2020},
      abstract     = {Forecasts of atmospheric composition in the Ex-UTLS
                      (extratropical upper troposphere – lower stratosphere) are
                      highly sensitive to uncertainties in the source regions of
                      air masses. This study investigates the reliability of
                      calculated source regions and their effects on trace gas
                      distributions in this region. For this purpose, an
                      ensemble-based probabilistic retroplume approach is
                      developed to track source regions of air masses. This
                      approach provides the ability to account for both, (i) the
                      contribution of different source regions to an air mass by
                      adjoint diffusion and (ii) the uncertainty of theses source
                      regions with respect to forecast dynamics. Probabilistic
                      retroplume calculations are applied to an air mass in the
                      vicinity of a weak saddle-point in the Ex-UTLS in order to
                      investigate its effect on source regions. The results
                      indicate high sensitivity of source regions to uncertainties
                      in atmospheric transport revealed by perturbed
                      meteorological forecasts. Additionally considering the
                      sources of surrounding air masses leads to even larger
                      spread of source regions. Spreading over large parts of
                      Europe and altitudes between 8 and 14 km within two days,
                      probable source regions comprise completely opposite
                      transport-directions. This large uncertainty of source
                      regions show significant effect on atmospheric composition
                      in the vicinity of the saddle-point on a short timescale.
                      Evaluating the effect of meteorological uncertainties on
                      local distributions of trace gases, ozone concentrations
                      range from 50 to 350 ppbv at the same location.
                      Probabilistic retroplume calculations suggest a clear
                      connection between these concentrations and related source
                      regions.},
      cin          = {IEK-7 / IEK-8},
      ddc          = {690},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-7-20101013 / I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {244 - Composition and dynamics of the upper troposphere and
                      middle atmosphere (POF3-244)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-244},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000501407200007},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.117063},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/889265},
}