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@ARTICLE{Vogel:891563,
      author       = {Vogel, Annika and Elbern, Hendrik},
      title        = {{I}dentifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in
                      the {P}o {V}alley related to model configuration in
                      {EURAD}-{IM} during {PEGASOS} 2012},
      journal      = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
      volume       = {21},
      number       = {5},
      issn         = {1680-7324},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2021-01588},
      pages        = {4039 - 4057},
      year         = {2021},
      abstract     = {Forecasts of biogenic trace gases in the planetary boundary
                      layer (PBL) are highly affected by simulated emission and
                      transport processes. The Po region during the PEGASOS
                      campaign in summer 2012 provides challenging, yet common,
                      conditions for simulating biogenic gases in the PBL. This
                      study identifies and quantifies principal sources of
                      forecast uncertainties induced by various model
                      configurations under these conditions. Specifically, the
                      effects of model configuration on different processes
                      affecting atmospheric distributions of biogenic trace gas
                      distributions are analyzed based on a priori available
                      information. The investigation is based on the EURopean Air
                      pollution Dispersion – Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) chemistry
                      transport model employing the Model for Emissions of Gases
                      and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN 2.1) biogenic
                      emission module and Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism
                      – Mainz Isoprene Mechanism (RACM-MIM) as the gas phase
                      chemistry mechanism. Two major sources of forecast
                      uncertainties are identified in this study. Firstly,
                      biogenic emissions appear to be exceptionally sensitive to
                      land surface properties inducing total variations in local
                      concentrations of up to 1 order of magnitude. Moreover,
                      these sensitivities are found to be highly similar for
                      different gases and almost constant during the campaign,
                      varying only diurnally. Secondly, the model configuration
                      also highly influences regional flow patterns with
                      significant effects on pollutant transport and mixing. This
                      effect was corroborated by diverging source regions of a
                      representative air mass and thus applies also to
                      non-biogenic gases. As a result, large sensitivities to
                      model configuration are found for surface concentrations of
                      isoprene, as well as OH, affecting reactive atmospheric
                      chemistry. Especially in areas with small-scale emission
                      patterns, changes in the model configuration are able to
                      induce significantly different local concentrations. The
                      amount and complexity of sensitivities found in this study
                      demonstrate the need to consider forecast uncertainties in
                      chemical transport models with a special focus on biogenic
                      emissions and pollutant transport.},
      cin          = {IEK-8 / JARA-HPC},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
      pnm          = {211 - Die Atmosphäre im globalen Wandel (POF4-211) /
                      CAMS,HITEC,ESKP, REKLIM+,UBA,KLIMAPOLIS $(jicg21_20200501)$},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-211 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jicg21_20200501$},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000631052600004},
      doi          = {10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/891563},
}