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@ARTICLE{Vogel:891563,
author = {Vogel, Annika and Elbern, Hendrik},
title = {{I}dentifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in
the {P}o {V}alley related to model configuration in
{EURAD}-{IM} during {PEGASOS} 2012},
journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
volume = {21},
number = {5},
issn = {1680-7324},
address = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
publisher = {EGU},
reportid = {FZJ-2021-01588},
pages = {4039 - 4057},
year = {2021},
abstract = {Forecasts of biogenic trace gases in the planetary boundary
layer (PBL) are highly affected by simulated emission and
transport processes. The Po region during the PEGASOS
campaign in summer 2012 provides challenging, yet common,
conditions for simulating biogenic gases in the PBL. This
study identifies and quantifies principal sources of
forecast uncertainties induced by various model
configurations under these conditions. Specifically, the
effects of model configuration on different processes
affecting atmospheric distributions of biogenic trace gas
distributions are analyzed based on a priori available
information. The investigation is based on the EURopean Air
pollution Dispersion – Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) chemistry
transport model employing the Model for Emissions of Gases
and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN 2.1) biogenic
emission module and Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism
– Mainz Isoprene Mechanism (RACM-MIM) as the gas phase
chemistry mechanism. Two major sources of forecast
uncertainties are identified in this study. Firstly,
biogenic emissions appear to be exceptionally sensitive to
land surface properties inducing total variations in local
concentrations of up to 1 order of magnitude. Moreover,
these sensitivities are found to be highly similar for
different gases and almost constant during the campaign,
varying only diurnally. Secondly, the model configuration
also highly influences regional flow patterns with
significant effects on pollutant transport and mixing. This
effect was corroborated by diverging source regions of a
representative air mass and thus applies also to
non-biogenic gases. As a result, large sensitivities to
model configuration are found for surface concentrations of
isoprene, as well as OH, affecting reactive atmospheric
chemistry. Especially in areas with small-scale emission
patterns, changes in the model configuration are able to
induce significantly different local concentrations. The
amount and complexity of sensitivities found in this study
demonstrate the need to consider forecast uncertainties in
chemical transport models with a special focus on biogenic
emissions and pollutant transport.},
cin = {IEK-8 / JARA-HPC},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013 / $I:(DE-82)080012_20140620$},
pnm = {211 - Die Atmosphäre im globalen Wandel (POF4-211) /
CAMS,HITEC,ESKP, REKLIM+,UBA,KLIMAPOLIS $(jicg21_20200501)$},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-211 / $G:(DE-Juel1)jicg21_20200501$},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000631052600004},
doi = {10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/891563},
}