Journal Article

FZJ-2024-06458

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Jézéquel, A. ; Bastos, A. ; Faranda, D. ; Kimutai, J. ; Le Grix, N. ; Wilson, A. M. ; Rufat, S. ; Shepherd, T. G.FZJ* ; Stuart-Smith, R. F. ; Van Loon, A. F. ; Bevacqua, E. ; D’Andrea, F. ; Lehner, F. ; Lloyd, E. A. ; Moemken, J. ; Ramos, A. M. ; Sippel, S. ; Zscheischler, J.

2024
IOPScience [Bristol]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad7527  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2024-06458

Abstract: As extreme event attribution (EEA) matures, explaining the impacts of extreme events has risen tobe a key focus for attribution scientists. Studies of this type usually assess the contribution ofanthropogenic climate change to observed impacts. Other scientific communities have developedtools to assess how human activities influence impacts of extreme weather events on ecosystemsand societies. For example, the disaster risk reduction (DRR) community analyses how thestructure of human societies affects exposure, vulnerability, and ultimately the impacts of extremeweather events, with less attention to the role of anthropogenic climate change. In this perspective,we argue that adapting current practice in EEA to also consider other causal factors in attributionof extreme weather impacts would provide richer and more comprehensive insight into the causesof disasters. To this end, we propose a framework for EEA that would generate a more completepicture of human influences on impacts and bridge the gap between the EEA and DRRcommunities. We provide illustrations for five case studies: the 2021–2022 Kenyan drought; the2013–2015 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific; the 2017 forest fires in Portugal; Acqua Alta (flooding) events in Venice and evaluation of the efficiency of the Experimental ElectromechanicalModule, an ensemble of mobile barriers that can be activated to mitigate the influx of seawater inthe city; and California droughts and the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations system as anadaptation strategy.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)
2. Stratosphäre (ICE-4)

Research Program(s):

1. 2113 - Future Weather and Extremes (POF4-211) (POF4-211)
2. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)
3. 2112 - Climate Feedbacks (POF4-211) (POF4-211)

Appears in the scientific report 2024

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Database coverage:
; ; ; Article Processing Charges ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; DOAJ Seal ; Emerging Sources Citation Index ; Fees ; Web of Science Core Collection

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