Journal Article

FZJ-2025-04508

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution

Feser, F. (Corresponding author) ; Shepherd, T. G.FZJ*

2025
Springer Nature London

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02659-6  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2025-04508

Abstract: Spectrally nudged storylines (constraining the large-scale atmospheric circulation to follow that of aparticular weather event) represent a relatively new attribution method. They differ fromconventional,probabilistic attribution approaches which consider a class of similar, generally univariate, extremes.Instead, their focus is on particular, historic extreme events of large impact which are still vividlyanchored in collective memory. The innovation of the method is the feasibility to quantify the role ofanthropogenic climate change for specific extreme events of the recent past, and it draws onexperience from regional climate downscaling. Spectrally nudged storylines thus offer a new, easilyimplemented and easily understandable way of communicating climate change to the general publicand decision-makers, as well as a pathway for detailed attribution of climate impacts. The techniqueoffers great potential as an addition to the established attribution methods by answering differentquestions and providing new attribution results.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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