Journal Article

FZJ-2015-03415

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Outbreaks of coinfections: The critical role of cooperativity

Chen, L. (Corresponding Author) ; Ghanbarnejad, F. ; Cai, W. ; Grassberger, P.FZJ*

2013
EDP Sciences Les Ulis

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/22866  doi:10.1209/0295-5075/104/50001

Abstract: Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type which explicitly incorporates the effect of cooperative coinfection. More precisely, each individual can get infected by two different diseases, and an individual already infected with one disease has an increased probability to get infected by the other. Depending on the amount of this increase, we prove different threshold scenarios. Apart from the standard continuous phase transition for single-disease outbreaks, we observe continuous transitions where both diseases must coexist, but also discontinuous transitions are observed, where a finite fraction of the population is already affected by both diseases at the threshold. All our results are obtained in a mean-field model using rate equations, but we argue that they should hold also in more general frameworks.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 411 - Computational Science and Mathematical Methods (POF2-411) (POF2-411)

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Database coverage:
; ; Current Contents - Physical, Chemical and Earth Sciences ; IF < 5 ; JCR ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Thomson Reuters Master Journal List ; Web of Science Core Collection

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