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| Book/Report | FZJ-2017-01803 |
1975
Kernforschungsanlage Jülich, Verlag
Jülich
Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/13855
Report No.: Juel-Conf-0015
Abstract: Looking for possibilities which seem suitable to guarantee an urgently necessary, sufficient energy supply for the future, energy planners in economy and government have to deal with the problem of estimating the consequences of new technologies or the change of the energy-political situation . Hopes are high for a very young branch of science - system engineering - which works to help in the planning and decision making areas by aid of mathematical models. "Energy Models for the Federal Republic of Germany" was thetitle of a workshop to which the KFA invited specialists in research, industry, and economy . More than 220 persons accepted this invitation. The aims of this program were: to Show the actual situation of the development of energy models for the whole energy system of the FRG, to formulate the requirements of energy models from the point of vlew of energy planners in government andindustry, to promote the exohange of experiences among the individual groups that deal with the preparation of energy models,and to discuss methods problems. According to this aim, there were a number of presentations during the first day which explained methods approaches and which also included experiences that have been made beyond the FRG. With these presentations three main points of effort became rather evident. 1. The problems of the energy economy cannot be regarded as isolated. On the contrary, this branch of domestic economy is of central significance for the whole political economy. Therefore it must be understood as a partial system which is embedded in the whole economic situation, technological concepts and actualities of environment. The mutual effectsof these partial systems are determinable for the behaviour of the system. 2. The method which shall be used depends an the questions answered by the model. Therefore you cannot compare the various methods and arrive at a value judgement. On the contrary, methods can only be Chosen with the aid of the aims of the research. For this reason we choose such varied models as, for example, optimization-models (linear programming), input/output analyses and dynamic simulation models .[... ]
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