Journal Article

FZJ-2020-00195

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png How to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures

Voegele, S. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Poganietz, W.-R. ; Mayer, P.

2019
ITAS Karlsruhe

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/24310  doi:10.14512/tatup.28.3.20

Abstract: Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advise are based on a lot of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures as well as for the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary that can deal with the implementation of non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) Analysis can be utilized to map dynamic trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy futures and the contribution CIB Analysis can make therein

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEK-STE)

Research Program(s):

1. 153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) (POF3-153)

Appears in the scientific report 2019

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Database coverage:
; ; ; DOAJ Seal

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