Journal Article

FZJ-2020-04993

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes

Barbarossa, M. V. (Corresponding author) ; Fuhrmann, J.FZJ*

2021
Wiley-Blackwell Oxford [u.a.]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/27656  doi:10.1111/irv.12827

Abstract: In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models make assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 511 - Enabling Computational- & Data-Intensive Science and Engineering (POF4-511) (POF4-511)
2. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2021

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