Journal Article

FZJ-2021-03345

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Bracher, J. (Corresponding author) ; Wolffram, D. ; Deuschel, J. ; Görgen, K. ; Ketterer, J. L. ; Ullrich, A. ; Abbott, S. ; Barbarossa, M. V. ; Bertsimas, D. ; Bhatia, S. ; Bodych, M. ; Bosse, N. I. ; Burgard, J. P. ; Castro, L. ; Fairchild, G. ; Fuhrmann, J.FZJ* ; Funk, S. ; Gogolewski, K. ; Gu, Q. ; Heyder, S. ; Hotz, T. ; Kheifetz, Y. ; Kirsten, H. ; Krueger, T. ; Krymova, E. ; Li, M. L. ; Meinke, J. H.FZJ* ; Michaud, I. J. ; Niedzielewski, K. ; Ożański, T. ; Rakowski, F. ; Scholz, M. ; Soni, S. ; Srivastava, A. ; Zieliński, J. ; Zou, D. ; Gneiting, T. ; Schienle, M.

2021
Nature Publishing Group UK [London]

This record in other databases:      

Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/28572  doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0

Abstract: Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October -- 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

---

Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2021

---

Database coverage:
; ; ; ; Article Processing Charges ; BIOSIS Previews ; Biological Abstracts ; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Agriculture, Biology and Environmental Sciences ; Current Contents - Life Sciences ; Current Contents - Physical, Chemical and Earth Sciences ; DOAJ Seal ; Essential Science Indicators ; Fees ; IF >= 10 ; JCR ; PubMed Central ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection ; Zoological Record

---