Journal Article

FZJ-2022-01366

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Mobility Trends in Transport Sector Modeling

Kraus, S. (Corresponding author)FZJ*RWTH* ; Grube, T.FZJ* ; Stolten, D.FZJ*RWTH*

2022
MDPI Basel

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Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/33788  doi:10.3390/futuretransp2010010

Abstract: Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Moreover, certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of these trends on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their implementation in transport sector modeling thus far. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Our analysis of the related effects reveals their importance to the transportation sector of the future. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification. However, other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. The coupling of the different types of models and collaboration among researchers from the different fields is recommended for filling this gap.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Technoökonomische Systemanalyse (IEK-3)

Research Program(s):

1. 1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)
2. 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)

Appears in the scientific report 2022

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