Journal Article

FZJ-2025-04510

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Towards developing an operational Indian ocean dipole warning system for Southeast Asia

Jain, S. (Corresponding author) ; Turkington, T. ; Tan, W. L. ; Schwartz, C. ; Scaife, A. A. ; Shepherd, T. G.FZJ*

2025
Springer Nature [London]

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1038/s41598-025-99261-9  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2025-04510

Abstract: Two strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in 2019 and 2023 led to multiple disastersover Southeast Asia, highlighting the need for warnings of IOD events. This paper presents a stocktakeof the current criteria for IOD monitoring and prediction and describes the development of anIOD warning system for Southeast Asia. We examined how subjective choices such as observationaldatasets, baseline periods, and time averaging affect IOD event identification. Our findings indicatethat the choice of sea-surface temperature dataset and time averaging (monthly vs. 3-monthly mean)lead to marked differences in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the index used for the monitoring andprediction of IOD events, and hence between various centers on IOD state. The southern MaritimeContinent can experience the impact of the IOD on rainfall even when the IOD has not met the currentoperational criterion, suggesting a need for an impact-based threshold for the IOD. We assess the skillof models in capturing the strength and phase of the IOD and report errors in IOD predictions. Whilemost models are skillful in capturing the active phase of the IOD, many models have an overactiveIOD strength. Calibration of DMI-based monitoring products is therefore recommended for the mostskilful IOD predictions. Finally, we describe an objective standard operating procedure to assist climateforecasters in issuing timely alerts of IOD events.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülich Supercomputing Center (JSC)

Research Program(s):

1. 5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation & Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511) (POF4-511)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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