Journal Article

FZJ-2026-02106

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Robust capacity expansion modeling for renewable energy systems

Kebrich, S. (Corresponding author)FZJ* ; Engelhardt, F. (Corresponding author) ; Franzmann, D. ; Büsing, C. ; Linßen, J.FZJ* ; Heinrichs, H.FZJ*

2026
Elsevier St. Louis

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.114929  doi:10.34734/FZJ-2026-02106

Abstract: Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We evaluate solutions optimized on a single years’ data under different input weather years, and iteratively modify solutions whenever supply gaps are detected. These modifications lead to solutions with sufficient capacities to overcome periods of cold dark lulls and seasonal demand/supply fluctuations. A computational study on a German energy system model for 40 operating years shows that preventing supply gaps, i.e., finding a robust system, increases the total annual cost by . In comparison, non-robust systems display loss of load close to of total demand during some periods. Results underline the importance of assessing the feasibility of energy system models using atypical time-series, combining dark lull and cold period effects.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülicher Systemanalyse (ICE-2)

Research Program(s):

1. 1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)
2. 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)

Appears in the scientific report 2026

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