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| Hauptseite > Publikationsdatenbank > Model-based assessment of organic fertilization as alternative to mineral P under future climate change |
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| Journal Article | FZJ-2026-02109 |
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2026
Elsevier Science
Amsterdam [u.a.]
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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1016/j.eja.2026.128097 doi:10.34734/FZJ-2026-02109
Abstract: Sustainable agriculture depends on reliable phosphorus (P) supplies, yet global reserves of mineral P fertilizers are finite. Here, we explored whether organic fertilization could serve as a viable substitute for mineral P whilesustaining crop yields and soil P under changing climate conditions. Using the calibrated and validated AgroC model with decades of field data from the Bad Lauchst¨ adt long-term experiment site in Germany (with a four-crop rotation of sugar beet, spring barley, potato, and winter wheat), we simulated crop performance and soil dynamics from 2019 to 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The analysis compared fivefertilization strategies: mineral fertilization (MIN), two farmyard manure rates (FYM_20 and FYM_30), and two optimized manure regimes (FYM_37 and FYM_37 +N). Results showed that fertilization strategy had a far greaterinfluence on soil P and yields than the projected climate scenarios. Low manure inputs (FYM_20) led to steady P depletion and yield loss, whereas FYM_30 and FYM_37 reduced winter wheat yield losses to 45% and 30% belowMIN levels, respectively, while achieving comparable or superior yields for barley, potato, and sugar beet. Winter wheat required modest mineral N supplementation (~15 kg N ha⁻¹) in FYM_37 +N to achieve optimal yields,while potato, barley, and sugar beet performed well under manure-only management. Warmer conditions under RCP8.5 increased P depletion by 10–15% relative to RCP4.5, but this effect remained minor compared withfertilization management. Notably, higher manure application rates were linked to lower cumulative P leaching. Among treatments, FYM_37_N performed best, with total P losses only 1.5–2% higher than those of MIN(3.77–4.82 kg P ha⁻¹ for MIN under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results suggest that optimized organic fertilization can effectively replace mineral P inputs, maintain crop yields, and enhance resilience in long-term cropping systems under climate change.
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