Hüttner, K. L. (Editor)FZJ* ; Hake, J.-F. (editor)FZJ* ; Fischer, W. (Editor)

2003
Forschungszentrum, Zentralbibliothek Jülich
ISBN: 3-89336-341-6

Abstract: There is a broad consensus among climate scientists that scientific evidence points to a man made climate change, and that global greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced up to 80 percent in this century in order to avoid a "dangerous" human interference with the climate system. Whereas national and international politics agree more or less with that assessment in general, there is a discernible and growing dissent about how to cope with that challenge. The cornerstone of international climate policy, the Kyoto Protocol, is not in force, and there are indications that only a handful of states are prepared to implement their emission reduction or limitation targets. Even if it is too early for accusing the international diplomatic process to enter a dead end road, a crisis of the international climate change diplomacy seems to be impending, suggesting research about new or additional approaches to the Kyoto Architecture.$^{1}$ There are different reasons for the shortcomings and pitfalls of the national and international climate policies, which have been analysed from different perspectives: Obviously there is a lack of adequate implementation of mitigation measures and policies, indicating that climate change is not taken as serious as declaratory policies suggest; in many countries there is a perception of high mitigation costs and resistance from societal agents; another reason is a general but different threat for states stemming from climate change and doubts about the effectiveness of the agreed mitigation policies, therefore directing (at least implicit) attention more to adaptation policies - whatever adaptation may be and look like. One main problem (and a political reason for at least the USA not to ratify the protocol) is the integration of the Non-Annex I Countries, the developing and threshold-countries, into a future climate protection regime in a substantial manner - that is limiting their future emissions too. There is no foreseeable consensus about the "ifs", "whens" and "hows" of such an integration. But at least informal political discussions have started and a growing body of scientific literature deals with that issue. Even the Summer School on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, organized by the Office for Climate Protection Research of the Programme Group Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, has addressed that problem. Interdisciplinary in its focus, from different professional areas (science, business and decision-making), the participants from developing and threshold countries have drawn their own conclusions on how climate change should be dealt with in the ,South" and be [...]

Keyword(s): climatic change ; climatic effect

1. Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE)